Bad Beat Jackpot Question

[Seven of Six]

I am hoping the gurus here can help me out. I play at a site that offers a bad beat jackpot and here are the rules:

Valid for real money Texas Hold’Em games played at Bad Beat Jackpot tables with limits $0.50 / $1 and higher.

The losing hand must be ‘Four of a Kind’, Jacks or better. Both hole cards must be utilized in the winning and losing hands.

Four or more players must be dealt into the hand.
Players sitting out the hand do not qualify for the jackpot.

What is the probability of this hitting? What do you think about the winning hand needed. If you were to set up a bad beat jackpot that could be realistically hit, what you have the qualifying hand be.

My thoughts for the hand would be ACES full of Jacks beat.

What do you think?

Thanks in advance

[metsandfinsfan]

losing hand has to be quads, aces full do not qualify]


im assuming you are talking about absolute .. most of the jackpots hit have been 4 of a kind losing to a straight flush

example

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]j [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] VS K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BOARD
J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[metsandfinsfan]

OR Str8flush vs str8flush

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
board
9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Seven of Six]

What I am asking, is what is a fair bad beat jackpot losing hand. I am saying that Aces full of Jacks or better should be what the bad beat jackpot should be.

The odds of 4 jacks being beat are astronomical at best, at least I would think so.

What do you think?

[Nightlight87]

Thats exactly why it has to be Quad jacks or better that gets beat because it happens very rarely, so they dont have to pay it out very often. If they were paying out for every fullhouse that got busted I think theyd be paying it a lot more?

[Seven of Six]

Well not just any full house beat, Aces full of Jacks or better.

[zycon]

Bad Beat Jackpot = -EV. I have not done the math but I don't see how this can possible be +EV. I play live low stakes where a buck is raked from each pot. There is no way there is a pos expectation from this rake (maybe if I was playing higher limits it would be). If it was +EV for the players the casino would not 'rake' it...I think it is just a way to generate action and increase players in the game. People follow the BBJ around town...i guess that would increase your EV...but it would still be negative.

[gedanken]

huh? it's only fair in terms of the cost of the gamble versus the payout in relation to the chances of hitting it. Of course it's unlikely to see quad jacks beat, but we have to know what it costs you to try, and what the payoff is if you win, to judge what is "fair".

In one sense, the cost is $0, so if the payout is anything, it's very nice of the casino to be giving their money away. Sweet, even. All they ask is quad jacks+ get beat. That could happen.

Looked at another way, Casinos are greed monsters that use an unlikely jackpot to lure customers to their tables which are raked steeply. There is no way under the stars that they would do this in a way that cost them money, or was even close to 0EV -- which would probably be many people's definition of "fair".

[Ender1553]

There's definatly good EV for the Casino... if they rake $1 per pot, and it takes 100,000 hands before someone hits it, then the bad beat jackpot is $100,000 when the person hits it (saying that the entire rake goes into the jackpot). If the person hitting the jackpot recieved the entire $100k, then the EV is exactly 0 for the casio. Now, if the casino then "rake" the BBJP 10% when it's hit (like absolute does), then the player recieves 90k when they hit it and the casino 10k. Very lucrative for the casino. They get the same percentage from the jackpot no matter when someone hits it, but the higher it is, the more people come to their tables for the "lotery."

[metsandfinsfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad Beat Jackpot = -EV. I have not done the math but I don't see how this can possible be +EV. I play live low stakes where a buck is raked from each pot. There is no way there is a pos expectation from this rake (maybe if I was playing higher limits it would be). If it was +EV for the players the casino would not 'rake' it...I think it is just a way to generate action and increase players in the game. People follow the BBJ around town...i guess that would increase your EV...but it would still be negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

when the jackpot reaches a certain amount, it is definitely +EV