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#21
10-26-2007, 09:54 PM
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
you're very correct, sir. the rounding seems to be at random, too. anyway, the lines are: 4 teams 10-1 5 teams 15-1 6 teams 25-1 7 teams 50-1 8 teams 100-1 9 teams 200-1 10 teams 300-1 9 out of 10 teams 20-1 [/ QUOTE ] Standard payouts and ties lose. The rounding is NOT random. Notice how many 3 and 7 point lines the cards have. This is because ties lose. The other lines are off because the guy selling these knows which teams are more likely to be picked often. New England is hot, make them 20 and he'll still get more circles on NE. 
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#22
10-27-2007, 01:16 AM
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521.
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#23
10-27-2007, 06:49 AM
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Here my "Have Fun"
12 Team -Parlay Card- NFL Week 8. Rams +3.5 Lions +5.5 Panthers +7.5 Dolphins +10.5 Titans -7.5 Eagles -1.5 Bengals +3.5 Jets -2.5 Texans +10.5 Jaguars +4.5 49ers +2.5 Redskins +17.5 Risk $5 to win $10,000 Now lets have fun.
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#24
10-29-2007, 10:51 AM
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. [/ QUOTE ] I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving: 10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p)) Where am I going wrong?
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#25
10-30-2007, 12:27 AM
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. [/ QUOTE ] I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving: 10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p)) Where am I going wrong? [/ QUOTE ] I deleted the spreadsheet, but without giving it much thought it seems like you're ignoring the probability that you lose your stake.
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