Check behind turn?

[Gurravasa]

Looks perfect to me. I like the river bet, he might call with 88-JJ. There aren't many hands that beat you that he wouldn't bet river with. When he checks river the only hand that he could have that you don't beat is KJs. Easy valuebet on river.

[Sushiglutton]

Turn looks good to me. Get to show-down. River is interesting for me. Since villain chcked I guess JJ-88 makes up a good part of hs range and your sensitive valuefinger mad th right play IMO.

[TheDudeChad]

I like your play on all streets here. (Ok, preflop is little thin)

For those saying bet/fold turn, what range are you giving villain to CR turn? We have 5 outs a significant portion of the time and we're getting 9.25:1, with the opportunity to get in two bets pretty much always on the river if we improve. Close to a call and fold river UI no? Or do we think villain has KQ or a set a lot?

Also, a hypothetical:

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB bets, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

[Gurravasa]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your play on all streets here. (Ok, preflop is little thin)

For those saying bet/fold turn, what range are you giving villain to CR turn? We have 5 outs a significant portion of the time and we're getting 9.25:1, with the opportunity to get in two bets pretty much always on the river if we improve. Close to a call and fold river UI no? Or do we think villain has KQ or a set a lot?

Also, a hypothetical:

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB bets, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

call


Board: 5d Qs 7h Ks Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.167% 29.17% 00.00% 21 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 70.833% 70.83% 00.00% 51 0.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like your play on all streets here. (Ok, preflop is little thin)

For those saying bet/fold turn, what range are you giving villain to CR turn? We have 5 outs a significant portion of the time and we're getting 9.25:1, with the opportunity to get in two bets pretty much always on the river if we improve. Close to a call and fold river UI no? Or do we think villain has KQ or a set a lot?

Also, a hypothetical:

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
SB bets, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

call


Board: 5d Qs 7h Ks Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.167% 29.17% 00.00% 21 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 70.833% 70.83% 00.00% 51 0.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

a) His range isnt that tight

b) Discount Qx and KK+ as villain will 3-bet these on the flop with non-zero probability

c) Discount lower pp's as it isnt everyone who will turn these hands into a bluff.


The decision on the river is much closer than suggested by that stove. You are basically hoping he turns lower pp's into a bluff which I dont see happeing very often. (But i dont play that game)

[Gurravasa]

[ QUOTE ]


a) His range isnt that tight

b) Discount Qx and KK+ as villain will 3-bet these on the flop with non-zero probability

c) Discount lower pp's as it isnt everyone who will turn these hands into a bluff.


The decision on the river is much closer than suggested by that stove. You are basically hoping he turns lower pp's into a bluff which I dont see happeing very often. (But i dont play that game)

[/ QUOTE ]

a) how do you know his 3-betting range from SB is looser than 10%?

b) KK+ I agree they should be diecarded, but you can't say that he never calls our flopraise with the intention to c/r turn. But discarding his Qx and KK+ hands makes our equity higher so I wont argue with you on this [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

c)ok I only keep 99+ in his range

Board: 5d Qs 7h Ks Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.786% 26.79% 00.00% 15 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 73.214% 73.21% 00.00% 41 0.00 { JJ-99, AKs, AJs-A9s, KJs-KTs, AKo, AJo-ATo }

I think it's an easy call anyway Oink.

[Oink]

a) How do you know it isnt? To do it properly you need to add in every possible hand an unknown can have here with the frequency you expect him to play it. Thats if course overcomplicating things. But you cant use a range where he has 88 100% and 77 0%. It makes no sense.

b) Discount not discard

c) I meant discounting every lower pp. As said in first post: You cant expect him to put in a bet 100% with 88-JJ. In my games I'd estimate that it happens about 10% of the time. I doubt an unknown in any game is betting 88-JJ 100%.


Basically what I am pushing is that this decision is too complicated to solve by putting in a range in stove and not thinking harder about how often villain actually plays each hand like this.

As said before. When you call you are hoping he turns lower pp's into a bluff. In my experience that doesnt happen a lot. Certainly not with 100% probability.

[Gurravasa]

you're a nit...

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
you're a nit...

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHA

I didnt say I wanted to fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Unknown I call

Predictable player I fold

Stupid player with wide range I call


Close either way.

[acehole60]

Yeah, I think this one is close also. Villain can't expect hero to fold much as hero's range consist exclusively of one pair+.

fwiw I also bet the river in scenario 1 but this is also kind of close I guess.