interesting 3 way (dry sidepot) hand v. tay 25/50

[dlpnyc21]

This one was kind of a doozy. Advice on all streets welcome. Here I raise it up utg and get 3 callers, including Tay from the BB. He most likely views me as weak, as seen from an earlier hand I posted on this site. In any case. I'm not sure why I bet this flop, most likely stupidity, but I decided to anyway. I think the flop bet is a huge mistake into 3 people. Anyways, shortstack shoves, and here is where the hand gets interesting. Tay cold calls. I have an ez call here, but right now I was scared he was already nutted. After 2 callers he can come along from the BB with pretty much any two, including small pockets and suited connectors. I put his range on a 7 at bare minimum, maybe 68 (although I think you can heavily heavily discount this as part of his range). So his range is something like:

55, 77, 57s+, with 68 being a small small small possibility.
Turn brings my straight, but he checks. I decide I don't want to bet/call a cr shove, so I check behind. I was going to value bet river if checked to and evaluate river if he bet (most likely fold). River is a horrible card, flush comes out, higher straight comes out, he could already be nutted...sooooo...i decided to call because he bet so small?

Where did I go wrong in this hand. Thanks,
dlpnyc21


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $25/$50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $5000
UTG+1: $9697
CO: $1183
Button: $11373
SB: $5147
BB: $1225

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $175</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($750, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $615</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $1008</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3774, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $3774)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3774, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $3774)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1600</font>, Hero????

[cjl49]

Bet turn
- because any drawing hand that hits beats you
- because if taylor is already beating you you need to find out and you won't get a free showdown anyway?

[cjl49]

oh but as it stands that riv bet could be a lone 7... and u have to call... i dunno, is that obvious or is it just me?

[MDMA]

I have no idea why you are saying something like "no idea why I am betting this flop, probably stupidity", if you raise this UTG how can you dislike firing this flop even against 3 players? I'm not saying you MUST, just saying it really is NOTHING wrong with it.

I think this, as played, is a pretty clear call.

I also like the turncheck behind, because I feel it's pretty much a fold for GP with something like 76 if we bet turn.

[cjl49]

obv MDMA &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; me
but just wondering... this might be looking too hard but if gp really does view dlpnyc21 as weak (which is of course in question), woudl a turn bet really fold out 67? doesnt it play out like hero has AA/KK, and if the turn bet isnt too big, what line of thinking coudl green plastic take to fold?

[El Diablo]

dlp,

I would generally play this just like you and call the river.

[hardkAre]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you are saying something like "no idea why I am betting this flop, probably stupidity", if you raise this UTG how can you dislike firing this flop even against 3 players? I'm not saying you MUST, just saying it really is NOTHING wrong with it.

I think this, as played, is a pretty clear call.

I also like the turncheck behind, because I feel it's pretty much a fold for GP with something like 76 if we bet turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[innerpeace]

your line is reasonable, and as played, i call river. i think you see a lone 7 here just often enough to justify it, especially since your hand is well disguised.

the flop bet is marginal, but i think ok. you can also generally consider making a slightly smaller sized bet on this flop as a semi-bluff blocker.

also, i presume you checked behind on the turn in part to keep the pot small and get a cheap showdown. you got what you wanted, so the decision should be clear.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
your line is reasonable, and as played, i call river. i think you see a lone 7 here just often enough to justify it, especially since your hand is well disguised.

the flop bet is marginal, but i think ok. you can also generally consider making a slightly smaller sized bet on this flop as a semi-bluff blocker.

also, i presume you checked behind on the turn in part to keep the pot small and get a cheap showdown. you got what you wanted, so the decision should be clear.

[/ QUOTE ]


ok...so the river decision seems clear.

what about the turn action? is anyone good at math and can they do an analysis where you weight his hand range and see the ev of bettting turn?

like his range is basically 77, 55, 75+, 68 (weighted wayyy less).

and he folds some of the time on the turn with a lone seven but not very often.

By my "logic" math, betting the turn seems to be +ev, but I can't figure it exactly.


Thanks,
dlpnyc21

[w_alloy]

I think you need to bet turn, and here's why.

If you are behind on the turn, and you check, he is going to bet the river, and you are going to have a very tough decision and probably pay off. If you bet this turn and he raises or calls and leads river, you can make a safe fold. So either way, if you are behind on the turn, you are still probably putting the same amount of money in and it doesnt matter.

If you are ahead on the turn, you gain value most (or at least some) of the time from 7s, and you don't have to worry about making a thin river value bet. Also, and perhaps this is most important, virtually every hand he has here has outs. Folding out a 4 outer might not seem like much, but for a decision this thin where you will lose the same when you are behind whether you bet or not, this is an important factor. You also don't have to worry about getting bluffed (unless tay has a great read on you and shorty), so betting is always better when you are ahead.