Hedgie43's Rugby World Cup Picks

[hedgie43]

Friday
Argentina +11.5 vs. France
Risk 1u to win 1u

Argentina has won 4 of the last 5 encounters between the two countries and the one match they lost was by 1 point. This includes the only match France has ever lost in Marseille. Argentina has a few injury worries, but their 3 best players (F Contepomi, Pichot and Juan Martin Hernandez) are healthy and the replacements for the injured players have plenty of international experience. However, the injuries are the only reason this is not a multi-unit play. The moneyline of +425 is also good value.

Saturday
New Zealand -37.5 vs. Italy
Risk 1.1u to win 1u

This will probably be NZ's toughest match of the pool stages as Scotland have stated they will be playing a "B" side against NZ so that they are fully rested for their crucial match against Italy. Italy will be playing their first team but will have extreme difficulty going up against an equally good pack and a devastating backline. NZ will be looking to make a statement in this game and should win by about 50.

Sunday

Canada +29.5 vs. Wales
Risk 1.1u to win 1u

Canada always plays well against Wales and will really look to take the Welsh on physically. They will keep the ball tight and try to keep the game low scoring. Canada had a very successful summer with a huge win over the US and a competitive performance against New Zealand. Their goal in this RWC is the quarterfinals so they will be targeting this game.

Ireland -62.5 vs. Namibia
Risk 1.1u to win 1u

Ireland will likely score 100 against Namibia. The Irish players performed poorly in their warmup matches and will be looking to not only cement their places for key matches but also to prove a point. Namibia is terrible and is coming off of a 105-13 loss to South Africa. It also looks like they have lost one of their few professional players in Skipper Badenhorst. A 100 point loss would not be surprising here.

[hedgie43]

Not that anyone else cares but the NZ-Italy game has moved to 41.5.

Also, the over/under for the Argentina/France match has been posted and it's 41.5. I like the over (risking 1.1u to win 1u). The last few games between France and Argentina are as follows:

53
38
65
15
55

Argentina has named an attacking lineup with Hernandez at 10 and Contepomi at 12 (rather than Todeschini at 10) so the game should be more high scoring than normal. Only thing to counteract that could be opening game jitters, but I still like the over.

[dennison]

I like all except the Argentina pick. France have been in scintillating form of late and playing this at home in front of an eager crowd. I think the line is pretty much spot on, no vig and I take France -11.5.

[Limpfold]

Since I have no clue about rugby I thought I'd ask if there's value in a middle.

USA +55 -111 England -51.5 -104?

[hedgie43]

NZ Tab (http://www.tab.co.nz/sport/) has what they call winning margin spread and lists England winning by 50-56 at +450 but they are taking a ton of vig.

[hedgie43]

Argentina wins 17-12 after leading 17-9 at halftime. Poor kicking and some missed opportunities lead to the over not covering but no worries.

Sides: 1-0 +1.0u
Totals: 0-1 -1.1u

[hedgie43]

NZ covers easily, winning 76-14 in an absolute demolition. Canada was actually leading Wales 17-9 in the second half but ran out of steam, losing 42-17 but still covering the 29.5. Namibia-Ireland coming later.

Sides: 3-0 +3.0u
Totals: 0-1 -1.1u

[hedgie43]

Namibia ran Ireland close and with 15 minutes left had all the momentum and was only down by 10. Needless to say, Ireland did not cover. This might have been the biggest upset in the history of sports had Namibia won.

Sides: 3-1, +1.9 u
Totals: 0-1. -1.1 u

[DannyOcean_]

when and where can i watch this on standard american tv? is the answer "ahahahahahahaha", because i would love to watch.

[hedgie43]

On 2 day delay, Versus will have some of the games. Other than that your options are PPV (25 bucks a game) or watch online for free. This is the email a friend sent me:

Free Setanta feed: http://livefooty.doctor-serv.com/. It's streaming, you can download the required players from the site to view the feeds. Same schedule as Setanta Sports, all pool matches live.

ITV feed from UK: https://www.liveuktv.com/index.asp. Will work for games on ITV 1 only (usually big games, check schedule at http://www.itv.co.uk/rugby). Register for the free seven day trial. If you have multiple email accounts, you can keep doing it. Use the promotional code 'freetrial' on the last registration step. Will lauch in Windows Media Player, best quality of all the feeds. This will work for the knockout rounds as well, Setanta will not be showing them.

Star Sports feed: http://www.tvunetworks.com/. Look for Star Sports in channel list. Has most games live, some of the smaller nations are delayed. Check the schedule on their website at: http://www.espnstar.com/tvtimes/tvtimes_index.jsp > country China > channel Star Sports Asia. You will need a player to watch it.

Direct download for TVUPlayer here ...
http://www.download.com/3000-2194_4-10652166.html

To install, double click the downloaded folder and it should automatically unzip, run the .exe and keep clicking next.

When installed it will tell you there's a new version available and ask if you want to download it, don't bother and click no as this version works fine. Should launch automatically when done.

If all else fails, http://www.eurosport.fr. Free feed in French available there.