25nl: is this a dumb river bet?

[PJo336]

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($97.15)
SB ($54.85)
BB ($40.71)
UTG ($8.05)
MP ($17.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3.

River: ($11.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6???</font>

at the time i figd he had diamonds but then i realized if that were true he will only call with better hands. Also maybe he could be pushed off a weak ace but doubtful at this limit. Is this just stupid? Thoughts on flop/turn as well

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
at the time i figd he had diamonds but then i realized if that were true he will only call with better hands. Also maybe he could be pushed off a weak ace but doubtful at this limit. Is this just stupid? Thoughts on flop/turn as well

[/ QUOTE ]

Think your analysis is right on.I think he never folds any made hand he was calling with on flop &amp; turn.

[Micro Donk]

yea def check behind. hes not calling worse, and the only hands he is folding better is maybe a mid pp. an ace is def calling as hes getting 3/1 and only loses to A5 and AK, chops with rest

[PJo336]

bahh, thanks guys, sometimes i dont stop and think

[LegendLength]

You bet $6 into a $10 pot on the river. Let's go through some math:

Pretend you have a machine that flips a coin. The coin toss costs you $10 and if you win it gives you $10 (plus your money back). If you lose it just takes your $10.

This would be a useless game because in the end you'd end up with the same amount. Half the time you are earning $10 and half the time you are losing $10.

Now imagine the machine charges you only $5 per turn. On the first turn you pay the $5 and win it. You are now $10 richer. On the next turn the machine wins so you lose your $5 entry fee.

If it goes win, lose, win, lose, win etc. then you will be earning $10 for each win, and losing $5 for each loss. So to make it fair the machine would need a special coin that lets him win 2/3 of the time.

For this hand, you are betting about $5 to win $10. The guy needs to fold only 1/3 of the time for you to be ahead. So take into account these facts that might make him fold:

- You bet hard preflop, flop, turn and river

- He check / called the whole way with a flush on the board (and two straight draws: AK and 45)

- He was in the BB so might be defending with something other than Ax / Kx

So he could have QJ / two diamonds / JT which he will definitely fold for $6. He could also have Kx / underpair / 5x which he might fold for $6.

If he has Ax he is definitely not folding because he will split against any other ace. 4x will also not fold obviously.

So it is actually a good bet on the river because he'll fold more than 1/3 of the time IMO.

[willyc]

[ QUOTE ]
So he could have QJ / two diamonds / JT which he will definitely fold for $6. He could also have Kx / underpair / 5x which he might fold for $6.

[/ QUOTE ]

We do not need to bet to fold out a busted flush draw, we can just check behind a win the pot. Assuming villain doesn't fold a better hand, if we bet we either win 0 from a busted draw or lose our bet to a better hand.

So can we get a better hand to fold? I doubt it. Do you really think he calls two streets with Kx or an underpair? Or if he does decide call two street with Kx or an underpair for some reason, why do you think he is folding the river?

And what would possess him to call the flop with 5x?

[LegendLength]

That's a good point willy I didn't look carefully enough to see that we had a showdown hand. I guess my post was really for a hand that could not see showdown.

[Milky]

Wow, looks like one of my typical spew hands... these kinds of hands were probably my biggest leak for a while and I've really tried to cut back on them. Honestly I just c/f turn and end it there.