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#61
10-29-2007, 07:42 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
KENTUCKY losinf to Miss State cost me $1800 this week end! dsihbtgfubyghef
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#62
10-29-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
LSU on the road this season:
at Miss State W 45-0 at Tulane W 34-9 at Kentucky L 43-37 As you can see, they lost in their only real test at UK, and I think it's very much open to debate how good the Tigers are away from Death Valley. I'd still expect them to win the game, but 7 points looks a little high to me. Sagarin has the line at 5 and I think if anything, it should probably be a little lower. Also, Georgia Tech and UConn are both teams that have lost at Virginia that are better than Wake, but I do think the line's about right if Sewell's iffy. I looked around a little, but couldn't find any information on whether he'd be healthy for the Wake Forest game.
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#63
10-29-2007, 07:45 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs. [/ QUOTE ] Bingo. Georgia Tech's rush defense is one of the best in the country and their secondary is the big weakness on the defensive side of the ball. Matt Ryan lit them up, but Virginia Tech doesn't an accurate enough QB to burn them. Also, you can't just look at Dwyer's two worst games and evaluate him that way. The game before that, he ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards against Virginia and he's a young back that's continually improving. He's no Tashard Choice, but the dropoff's a lot less than you're making it out to be. Also, Rashaun Grant is playing against Virginia Tech, he missed some practices, but he's expected to be ready to go by game day. The way I'd cap this game is overall talent: +0.5 for Georgia Tech, home advantage on a Thursday night: +3.5, Choice injury: -1.5, matchups: +3, letdown for VT after losing last week +1.5. That would leave Georgia Tech as a 7 point favorite. I think you can bring that down a little bit, since it will be a low-scoring game, but I still think GT should be getting at least 4 points here and probably 5. All these people who are saying "the wrong team's getting the points" haven't followed ACC football closely at all this year. [/ QUOTE ] well reasoned and well put. although it does seem that gtech struggles against better competition, irrespective of their opponent's offensive style. certainly, you wouldn't put virginia in there with the passing giants, would you? and v-tech is almost a clone of virginia. tlt.
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#64
10-29-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
iggy- Don't forget that Kentucky got LSU on an extra 2 days rest and LSU was coming off the Florida game. LSU would have been up 17 in that game had the tight end caught that TD pass. As always, I could be wrong to very wrong.
Wake I'm not sure about, but I'm mainly just fading Virginia again.
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#65
10-29-2007, 08:01 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
LSU on the road this season: at Miss State W 45-0 at Tulane W 34-9 at Kentucky L 43-37 As you can see, they lost in their only real test at UK, and I think it's very much open to debate how good the Tigers are away from Death Valley. I'd still expect them to win the game, but 7 points looks a little high to me. Sagarin has the line at 5 and I think if anything, it should probably be a little lower. Also, Georgia Tech and UConn are both teams that have lost at Virginia that are better than Wake, but I do think the line's about right if Sewell's iffy. I looked around a little, but couldn't find any information on whether he'd be healthy for the Wake Forest game. [/ QUOTE ] Tulane wasn't really a road game...I've marked it as nuetral for all my databases and whatnot
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#66
10-29-2007, 08:17 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Navy +3.5 available at various places right now dom, just helping out. Also Maryland is at +3 and it might duck back down soon (actually a few books just shaved half a point, just my 2 cents. I like the picks. What do you think of Texas A&M +21 @ Oklahoma? [/ QUOTE ] Actually just a typo i got Navy +3.5 but would of been a valuable heads up if what i typed was true, thanks. As for Texas A&M vs Oklahoma i'd stay away. AM's strength is in running the ball which i'm not sure they'll be able to do against the Sooners who've been tough against the run all year giving up under 70ypg. Also if the Aggies fall behind early which you'd expect a 21 point dog to do they won't have the opportunity and i don't trust that pass Offence to keep it close. 21 points may well be enough but its not a game i'm tempted to go near
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#67
10-29-2007, 08:29 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
I wouldn't say that Georgia Tech necessarily struggles with better competition. The best team they've played this year after BC is Clemson and they beat them 13-3.
The Virginia game was an early game immediately after the loss to BC and I think Georgia Tech came out with somewhat of a letdown. They were down 21-7 after the 1st quarter and still would have come back to win if it weren't for a couple of key penalties late.
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#68
10-29-2007, 09:27 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Any thoughts on Troy +16.5 (or more since it's climbing?) Troy has won 6 in a row and none of them have been close. They won @ Ark St. 27-0 in their last game. They handled Ok St. as easily as Georgia did. Will Georgia be on a letdown, or will they be pumped to strut their stuff in front of the home folks? Will they storm the field after a TD?
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#69
10-29-2007, 09:44 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
wait for 17+, bet Troy, profit
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