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#1
10-30-2006, 10:35 PM
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How bad was it that I hedged here?
I realize hedging is generally –EV but my question is when in you guys opinion is hedging okay. Here is an example of a hedge bet I just made live betting:
 I made the first bet on the Pats a couple hours before game time. I made the hedge bet when the Pats were up 7-0 early in the 2nd quarter and they were 1st and 10 at the Vikings 24. This is a large play for me. I was pretty much taking a shot after having a great weekend. My typical bet size is $200 but I wager up to $500 on some games and money lines. I’m up $1200 the last couple days after a 3rd straight week of profit and decided to just take a shot here. I’m okay if lose this, it just puts me back where I was Friday. The answer might be: “Don’t take shots like this”. With that aside though is this a situation where hedging might be okay. I appreciate any serious responses. I’m wondering if I’m making a big mistake but in my mind it seemed to make sense to hit this right then and there once I seen the +460 Thoughts? 
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#2
10-30-2006, 10:54 PM
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Re: How bad was it that I hedged here?
Depending on how big your roll is, hedging might have been the right play. But if hedging was the right play, your bet size was too big to begin with. So, either way you made a mistake. You'd be better off betting an amount you are comfortable losing and not bothering with a hedge. This is all standard hedge advice, and assumes Vikes +460 wasn't +EV in and of itself.
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#3
10-30-2006, 10:54 PM
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Re: How bad was it that I hedged here?
Hedging is ok if it for an amount that will have a large affect on your life. If making sure you win $750 is huge, say a months rent or a good amount of your bills and you live check to check then sure hedge. You shouldn't be risking that much like you said. Now if you bet $500 on the Tigers to win a $Billion on them winning the WS then hedge. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 17-0 by the way.
-Brendan
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#4
10-30-2006, 11:05 PM
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Re: How bad was it that I hedged here?
Well now it’s a null point. But at the time I felt that if the Patriots only got a FG on that possession the line would go to +300ish and If they scored a TD it would only got to +520ish felt it was 50/50 this would happen. I think actually if I didn’t have a bet on the Pats I would have probably still bet the +460 on its own because I thought it was high. Personally I thought the line was giving to much probability of the Pats punching it in for 6. I was watching the live betting looking for value on a total bet and the thought of hedging this didn’t even really cross my mind till I seen +460 and at the point in time I couldn’t resist.
Either way I'm thrilled right now. I live month to month with all my income coming from gambling both as a player and an affiliate.
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#5
10-31-2006, 03:06 AM
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Re: How bad was it that I hedged here?
[ QUOTE ]
Well now it’s a null point. But at the time I felt that if the Patriots only got a FG on that possession the line would go to +300ish and If they scored a TD it would only got to +520ish felt it was 50/50 this would happen. I think actually if I didn’t have a bet on the Pats I would have probably still bet the +460 on its own because I thought it was high. Personally I thought the line was giving to much probability of the Pats punching it in for 6. I was watching the live betting looking for value on a total bet and the thought of hedging this didn’t even really cross my mind till I seen +460 and at the point in time I couldn’t resist. Either way I'm thrilled right now. I live month to month with all my income coming from gambling both as a player and an affiliate. [/ QUOTE ] This is the key. If you think the new bet is +EV on its own, then it's perfectly fine to make regardless of whether it's hedging a previous wager.
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