NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river

[Aquadougs]

The turn should be a standard 3/4 pot bet?

[infinity235]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats why I tried to "potcontrol" the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so you didn't commit when you hit your TPTK when the pot was like $10? Then fold the turn please. If you decide to commit, bet turn, shove river.

[Check_The_Nuts]

ahh guys you can't bet/fold the turn. You'll be pot stuck. Pay attention to stack sizes.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
ahh guys you can't bet/fold the turn. You'll be pot stuck. Pay attention to stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stack sizes are 100 bbs. You can b/f when you are dead.

[Profish2285]

Youre getting 3:1 roughly I think if you bet and get raised but if you get raised youre not good 1/4 times against this guy. Thats why I think you can b/f here.

[Check_The_Nuts]

26 to win 80, 3x25=75+3=78. So your getting a little over 3:1 on your call. Just bothers me that he would be basically never just calling the turn if you bet.

tbh its such a weird spot on the turn versus him that I don't mind a check/fold unless I've seen him get way out of line before.

[Profish2285]

FWIW looking at it again, c/f isnt terrible either although it looks weak at first glance. His line pf doesnt look like a king, it looks like a pocket pair. While many people will float that board with random pocket pairs, I dont believe someone with those stats will, maybe TT but not less than that really. Even if for some reason he does float though, he also doesnt seem the type to turn those hands into a bluff. I think b/f and c/c are both pretty close but in a vacuum I would probably b/f.

[quirkasaurus]

my guess is he's got either 22, 55, 66, or something really
daffy like K5s. If he's got 34s, I'm freaking out and leaving
the table after this hand.

[Aquadougs]

Ive done a bit math:

We have 5 choises (A to E), and here are my assumptions about them:

If i check, he bluffs (k), or valuebets set (s), or checks worse hands and wont put any morey in (1-k-s)
Route A If i checkraise (push), he folds the bluffs (k) and call with the sets (s)
Route B If i check-call and check river, he will valuebet (push) his set (s) or check his turnbluff (k)
Route C If i check-call and bet (push) the river, he will fold worse hands (k) and call with better hands (s)
Route D If i bet 17 , he will raise with his set (n) and he calls (and fold river) with worse hands (h) and fold the rest (1-h-n)
Route E We check/fold. EV=0


Here are an assumption how i think a nitty and tight player would play in this situation:

He calls at the flop with:
80%: set
10%: worse hands he will fold if i bet, but bet 17 if i check
10%: worse hands he will call if i bet

If we bet turn, we bet 17:

EV A: C/R.............-25.81
EV B: C/C_C/F...... -7.15
EV C: C/C_B........ -25.81
EV D: B.............. 8.15


This means: Betting the turn is most profitable given those assumptions.

What do you think about the assumptions?

[Aquadougs]

Here are the formula if someone is interested:

Variables:

k Floatbluff%
n Set%
P Pot before my bet
B My turnbet
L His turnbet
S Eff.stack before any action at turn
h Worse hands

EV-A = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*S
EV-B = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*L
EV-C = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*S
EV-D = (1-n-h)*P + h*(P+B) - n*B