Pot control or protection? Discuss this texture

[Genz]

I've been playing a little 20NL to work on my game and implement new concepts. Esp. manipulating the pot size. This is a spot that I have been in pretty often and I'd like to have feedback. Please elaborate your responses.

Villain is running 17/7/oo over a very small sample. So as a default I assume that he is nittish and won't call light. So I don't want to play a big pot against him with a single pair, because I feel he won't go far in a hand oop without solid values. So I'm not pot/pot/pushing my overpair here ever.

There is no converter for the site I play on. So bear with me.

Game is 20NL 6Max.
Villain has $21.67 and is sitting UTG
Hero covers and is sitting in MP

Hero is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop:
Villain opens with a raise to $1, Hero reraises to $3.10, it's folded around, Villain calls.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero???

I don't like this board. Many big pairs that a nitty villain might raise but not 4bet preflop with have made a set here. Many broadways have a draw. Those are mostly gutshots and since I suspect nittiness on villain's side, I might not be supposed to worry about those too much, but since villain could also be aggressive, I'd hate a c/r or a float here. And since I want to keep the pot small, I certainly want to check one street. In the best case he's holding AK and it doesn't matter if I bet this street or the next, because he prolly won't stack off with it so there is only a limited amount of money that I need to get into the pot. So the question is:

Why is this flop the right one to check and get closer to showdown? Or why is it the wrong one?

[CrustyFace]

In your explanation you are using alot of "could"s and "might"s about the opposition which tells me you simply don'y know him, except that he is a bit nitty. This isn't a criticism, he just hasnt been around long. But my question to you is:

What is the only way to find out where you stand against an unknown?

[Genz]

Yep, you are right, I don't know him. So people are free to add their own interpretations of his stats and/or give their reasoning for a line against a confirmed nit with those or similar stats.

And betting out to see where I stand with a pair is something that you should stop doing like the 2nd day after your first deposit.

[CrustyFace]

Why is betting out wrong here?

[Genz]

I'm not saying that it's wrong. If it's wrong or not is the topic of the discussion. But betting or raising for information is almost never correct, ESPECIALLY against an unknown. You can only do that if you can rely on his reaction so that it's worth the money. If I'm raised or called here, according to my interpretation of his stats, he could have a made straight or AK. So I don't get reliable information. So betting for the reason to see where I stand is a waste of money. This kind of information should only be seen as an additional goody when you raise for other reasons like protection or value.

[TheDoubleA]

I hate a check here for the exact reason you stated in the OP. "Many broadways have a draw" There is no way I let AQ draw to there straight for free. Also, if a person has AK here, you should be getting as much money in here as possible. Sure, you could be CR'd, and then you would have a fine idea of where you stand: beat. I think that checking here might keep the pot small, but I also think that it can lose the pot for you plenty of times.

Also, lets think about this; what does the villian put you on? You 3 bet the flop, so I would think that in many minds that is AA, KK, AK, QQ, and maybe 1010 and JJ. AA, KK, JJ, AK probably has his range crushed, so I think you could just take this pot down with a c-bet. This is a good thing imo because of the drawy board.

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this flop the right one to check and get closer to showdown? Or why is it the wrong one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking the flop to get closer to showdown is wrong because you are letting a villian who you have no read on with no solid 3-bet calling range in mind draw a free card on a very drawy broadway board.

[CrustyFace]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that it's wrong. If it's wrong or not is the topic of the discussion. But betting or raising for information is almost never correct, ESPECIALLY against an unknown. You can only do that if you can rely on his reaction so that it's worth the money. If I'm raised or called here, according to my interpretation of his stats, he could have a made straight or AK. So I don't get reliable information. So betting for the reason to see where I stand is a waste of money. This kind of information should only be seen as an additional goody when you raise for other reasons like protection or value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok that makes sense.

[monkover]

you´re in position so you obviously can´t bet you.
There difenitely are merits in checking but also in betting
why i would advise checkign:
- controls the size of the pot --> villain is not likely to play big pots oop
- villain will prob think hands like KQ are good on the turn and bet them for value
-if villain has a draw and the turn blanks his equity drops a lot

merits in betting:
- you prevent villain from drawing for free.
- if villain has a hand like AK (def in his range) there are many scare cards that can come on the turn and prevent any more money from going in
- if you check behind villain can easily push you of your hand if a scare card comes ( see villain´s high aggro factor)

ok i hope i helped a bit...
tried to stick to ama´s request of not answering in a 1 liner which obv wouldn´t be possible here anyways.

[CobraGoat]

this is a value bet all day every day. you crush villains range of hands. since you are ahead of villains range you have to approach this as a value spot until villain does something to change his worse range. villain is 4 betting KK and probably QQ but he may have called with QQ. He is likely flat calling with AK, KQ, AQ, AJ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77. If villain is a nit, i think KJ raising and calling 3bet is unlikely. The only hands you are likely behind here are JJ and 99.

not betting this flop is bad because you are losing value on your hand and allowing your opponent to potentially catch up.

[danny8]

how many hands is the sample? if it really is tiny, like 10-20 then i dont think you can assume hes tight, basically a complete unknown.. if its 35+ even though obv the samples still tiny assuming hes somewhat tight seems reasonable.

first off i'd raise a little more pf, a possible tight player opeend UTG, its likely the only place you're going to get value from him so make it a bit larger ~$4

against a very tight range of AK, JJ+ you're a 60/40 favourite

what hands does a tight player call/shove over a cbet: AK, AA, KK, JJ

you're 50/50 vs that range, so betting and getting ai is never a mistake.

the only downside to betting is possibly folding out QQ and other crap he might have called pf with. downside to checking is letting QQ hit his 6outer. either option seems fine, i'd just mix it up but on the whole im betting

if his range is wider, say: AcAd,KK-TT,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ then betting becomes better than checking since theres more hands you beat and a couple GS's he might make a mistake by calling or shoving.

basically default is to cbet, but once you get a better idea of the range hes calling 3bets with then cehcking can be better. either way you should mix it up a little from time to time