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  #1  
Old 12-02-2006, 02:37 PM
SoCalPat SoCalPat is offline
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Default You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

... you raise with position, get called by the one of the blinds, who draws one while you take 2 to your AAKxx ... and don't bet out after the swap when checked to.

If you do that, you might be a 5CD fishie.

I can't believe how many times I saw this move play out last night. God bless you all, and I hope you catch aces up or better just enough to keep on playing the fishie way that you do.
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  #2  
Old 12-12-2006, 01:19 PM
hjelmquist hjelmquist is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

Oh.

Would you explain to a fish what is wrong with this play?

Thank you kindly
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  #3  
Old 12-12-2006, 01:39 PM
iron81 iron81 is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

When you draw 2, you look like you have trips. The blinds drawing and calling one means they have a come hand or two pair. Betting here unimproved will often get a fold because the villain believes you have trips. Of course, you should bet for value if you improve as well.
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  #4  
Old 12-12-2006, 01:51 PM
dDiabolical dDiabolical is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

If they call and draw one I imagine that 90% of the time they have a draw, you'll only get action here if you're beat.

Most of the time someone with 2 pair will 3bet predraw.
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  #5  
Old 12-12-2006, 02:03 PM
BruinEric BruinEric is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

[ QUOTE ]
... you raise with position, get called by the one of the blinds, who draws one while you take 2 to your AAKxx ... and don't bet out after the swap when checked to.

If you do that, you might be a 5CD fishie.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with what you call "fishie," in the sense that fishiness to me means limping in, playing big underdog hands pre-draw, calling too often. If you see a player miss a bet, I'd call this more "too tight."

Perhaps explain more where you see the value in this bet. I'm not disagreeing with you, but rather than make this thread a Foxworthy-style ("you might be a ...") those of us newer to the game might as well learn something.

So, is this a pure value bet to you, or are you hoping to get a weak 2-pair to fold?

What percentage of the time do you think you'll win if called here? 10%? 30%? 50%?

Assuming a "standard read" on the player, I assume you advocate folding to a check-raise 100% of the time?

To the other point in the thread:
[ QUOTE ]
When you draw 2, you look like you have trips. The blinds drawing and calling one means they have a come hand or two pair. Betting here unimproved will often get a fold because the villain believes you have trips. Of course, you should bet for value if you improve as well. When you draw 2, you look like you have trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is this "representing trips" line going to play? Again, this is a serious question. Plenty of players are keeping kickers, no?

Let's talk generally. Over a lifetime of play, if I automatically assumed every player who open-raises & draws 2 had a set and folded any hand 222xx and worse, would this be a net loss or net gain for my bankroll? Ignore corner-case reads like "only open-raises sets" and "raises any 2 when drunk."

Thanks for your thoughts, all.
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  #6  
Old 12-12-2006, 06:14 PM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

When you draw two to AAK but don't know what you're doing!
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  #7  
Old 12-13-2006, 01:01 AM
SoCalPat SoCalPat is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

Methinks I worded this poorly.

Once the villian, ie fishy, sees that I'm drawing 1 out of the blinds, there's absolutely ZERO reason for him to hold a kicker with his AAKxx hand. He's clearly behind (or up against a hand that will net him zippo post-swap if it misses), so he should be drawing three, not two. That's mistake No. 1, and it's not up for debate.

If he's going to represent trips, I'm guessing if he bets out after I check to him, he'll get a small 2P to fold enough to make it a winner. IMO, a bet here is mandatory. That's mistake No. 2, and while I'm open to suggestions as to why it's not, the first mistake is nowhere close to being debatable.

In short, you're not doing yourself any favors by limiting your chances to win when it's even remotely possible that you're not ahead. False-carding 1 pair when your opponent could have two pair is one of those instances.
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  #8  
Old 12-13-2006, 10:18 AM
Matt Ruff Matt Ruff is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

[ QUOTE ]
Once the villian, ie fishy, sees that I'm drawing 1 out of the blinds, there's absolutely ZERO reason for him to hold a kicker with his AAKxx hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he's got this fantastic read, based on the number of microseconds it takes you to call his bet, that you are holding AAQQ. Then he'll try to pair his king and totally pwn you!
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  #9  
Old 12-13-2006, 02:58 PM
hjelmquist hjelmquist is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

Mistake No. 1 is not up for debate, but I will try it anyway:

How about this reasoning: The blind might be drawing to a 4-flush. If I draw 3 he might be tempted to bluff representing 2 pairs in case he misses (and I would be inclined to fold). If I draw 2 the suspicion I might have trips could keep him from trying a bluff.
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  #10  
Old 12-13-2006, 09:32 PM
SoCalPat SoCalPat is offline
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Default Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...

[ QUOTE ]
Mistake No. 1 is not up for debate, but I will try it anyway:

How about this reasoning: The blind might be drawing to a 4-flush. If I draw 3 he might be tempted to bluff representing 2 pairs in case he misses (and I would be inclined to fold). If I draw 2 the suspicion I might have trips could keep him from trying a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is my experience that the vast majority of players trying to run a bluff on a missed draw do so WITH POSITION. Since the blind is OOP, he might get his play to work against some players, but I'll catch enough bluffs here to make this profitable, especially if I improve to aces up, trips (or, hopefully, even better). Naturally, whether or not you call is player-dependent.

And if I'm wrong? I've gained some valuable information, which is always a plus. Regardless, there's something amiss with your play by taking only two here to AAKxx when you know the opposition has two pair or a draw -- you want to maximize your chances of winning. Drawing two here doesn't do that.
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