Check-raise this river?

mongidig · #1 11-30-2007, 01:36 PM

live 9 handed 20-40. I have a tight image.

I raise UTG with KdKh UTG+1 calls, MP calls, Button calls and the BB calls.

The flop: Js4c5s

I bet, UTG+1 calls, folded to button who raises, Back to me and I three bet, UTG+1 calls, Button caps, and we both call.

Button: He is a very good TAG player. I suspect he is pushing a spade draw here. He may not have called a preflop raise with AJ and Certainly would have three bet preflop with an overpair. I am not putting him on a set just yet and two pair is out of the question. I am sure he is putting me on a big pair here.

The turn: Js4c5s4d.

I bet, UTG+1 folds, Button calls(Flush draw confirmed).

The river: Js4c5s4dKs.

Obviously a lovely card. Typically against non thinking type opponents I would just bet here and hope to get raised. The button though is very smart and knows that I know he has a flush. If I bet he will probably just call since he is very careful when he gets involved with me.

I am just curious if this would be a good spot to go for a check-raise. If I check he may put me on QQ or AA and being aggressive won't be able to help himself from betting. He will certainly call the raise in this big pot.

piggity · #2 11-30-2007, 01:43 PM

Given your detailed reads, sounds like a great spot for a river sexy. It sounds like you're pretty sure he won't raise you if you bet, and it seems unlikely that a TAG will check behind that card for fear of exactly KK.

Grease · #3 11-30-2007, 01:55 PM

This seems like a good place to get sexy, since he'll likely just call if you bet and will realize you're betting to bet/3-bet.

That said, the C/R seems pretty awesome, and I doubt he's going to check this river through. I would be surprised if he didn't pay off, given the huge size of the pot.

SNOWBALL · #4 11-30-2007, 02:27 PM

seems like your reasoning is all correct. nh

hoppscot22 · #5 11-30-2007, 02:45 PM

no, if you are sure he has a flush you should b/3b.

him just calling the river with a flush just seems very very wrong.

would you bet AA on this river? Would you bet QQ? Im pretty sure i would because betting>>>>>>checking. Therefore you should be betting a flush.

However, if you really think he wont raise a flush (which just seems wrong and dumb and you just trying to reason why you would go for a c/r) then obviously you should c/r.

In general betting is way better.

27offsooot · #6 11-30-2007, 02:55 PM

No way he knows that u know that he must have a flush. Just b/3b.

He will also never bet a J (or 66-TT) when the K rivers, but will still call a bet some decent % of the time with those hands. And there's no way u can positively say he has a flush draw on the river. If he's aggro enough to raise a FD, he's aggro to raise that flop with a pair obv.

SNOWBALL · #7 11-30-2007, 03:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way he knows that u know that he must have a flush. Just b/3b.

He will also never bet a J (or 66-TT) when the K rivers, but will still call a bet some decent % of the time with those hands. And there's no way u can positively say he has a flush draw on the river. If he's aggro enough to raise a FD, he's aggro to raise that flop with a pair obv.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok but why would he cap with a pair?

pohuist · #8 11-30-2007, 03:26 PM

If you ever C/R the river his may be a really good spot. I am split almost 50-50 here but probably still leaning towards bet. If he's smart enough to know that you know he has a flush, he should also be smart enough to smell a trap. Especially, if he has A-high flush, the possibility of you having Aces has significantly diminished and he must suspect QQ or KK. (Are you paying off here w/QQ and does he know that -- if you are not, there is no point for him in betting) Furthermore, he could have called A-Js (non-spade obv)and decided to wait till river to evaluate. He will call but not bet the river. Finally, he may have oddly played JJ and will give you a lot of action. I think, against a thinking player, coupled w/a possibility of him not having a flush a bet is slightly better, but neither is particularly wrong.

27offsooot · #9 11-30-2007, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]

ok but why would he cap with a pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

b/c i can't read well, clearly. He can still have AJ/KJ some % of the time esp if u're aggro enough, but it's much less likely than I had originally thought. Still think that b/3b is better solely based on him only have a flush though.

Bicycles_Biatch · #10 11-30-2007, 03:48 PM

I think your read AND your explanation are GREAT.

However, I think a bet 3 bet here still works a fair amount of the time.

Usually when people cap a draw, then get there, rationale (i.e. you might have KK) is TOTALLY over-ridden by their excitement over "getting there" on the river.

I'm willing to bet, even if he "thinks" you have kings, he still raises this river for value and says, well, he must have aces cause that King made me a FLUSH :-)