5400 FPP Satellite Bubble

[jnfpoker]

Another play and I are in disagreement as to whether my push here is +/- EV.

Buy In: 5400 FPP ($86)
Payout Structure:
1-4: $215
5-10: $0

Can someone please provide a mathematical approach to determine what it is? Thanks.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t2695)
CO (t3143)
Button (t2045)
SB (t3880)
BB (t3237)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t2695 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t2620, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t5540) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t5540) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t5540) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

[BradleyT]

You're basically risking $167 to win $40 (doubling through small blind). But blind steals are worth $5.25 and you have pretty good fold equity. I still wouldn't play it like this.

[jnfpoker]

What is the optimal line here then?

a) Open fold pre-flop.
b) Raise to t450 and fold if re-raised.

[Dalek]

Raise to 450 and fold to a re-raise. Your stack isn't so short you have to open push. I don't think its a really bad play though.

[dipstikdave]

raise to 400 and fold to r/r.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 400 and fold to r/r.

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[kleath]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 400 and fold to r/r, if someone is aggro enough that you get shoved over ALOT of the time just open muck

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