NL100: 97s; hits straight on turn IP

[Aquadougs]

Villain is unknown

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $109.50
BTN: $125.63
SB: $102
Hero (BB): $96
UTG: $250.87
MP: $193.50

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($3) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $4.50

Turn: ($17) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>


Is my line correct?

[ajmargarine]

Looks good. What are you doing on a 2 turn if SB checks to you?

[diskopoker]

spot on...you could be a little more but its fine

[Lucky]

raise more on flop, you want him to fold.

[chadattak]

The line is correct and like the amount you bet also. Of course you want the pot on the flop and I think raising 3 times his bet is fine.

[jordiepop]

i dont think we have much fe here... betting the turn is std

[Aquadougs]

Ajmargarine: If the turn is a 2 i think its best to check to get a freecard. Am I right?

[Aquadougs]

But when Im doing a bit math, thinks looks a bit different.

Lets say we expect to win about 0,4 times the riverpot (in addition to the existing pot and what he will put in the pot at turn) in the long run if we hit straight, and looses the turnbet if we dont hit. Then he has to fold more often than 9% of the time to make a turnbet profitable.

I think he will fold about 40% of the time and if so, the EV is 5,86.

If we just check and expect 0,2 of the riverpot if we hit, then the EV is 3,71.

If we just check and expect 0,4 of the riverpot if we hit, then the EV is 4,33.

I think its best to bet the turn after this math session.

Is my fold% and hit-river EV numbers to optimistic?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Ajmargarine: If the turn is a 2 i think its best to check to get a freecard. Am I right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you see he folded on a Ten turn. Which means he's probalby folding alot of turns that don't make/improve his hand. What do you put him on?

[Aquadougs]

If he folds 30% of the time at turn (and we expect 0,4p at river if we hit), then the EV is 4.