|
|
#1
10-20-2007, 10:17 AM
|
|||
|
|||
NFL Week 7 player props thread
Not a big fan of the Bodog's fantasy scoring lines this week. The only one that I've bet so far:
Brian Westbrook -6.5 vs. Cedric Benson at -135 for 1 unit. I'm guessing others have pounded this, because it's down to -150 already. I have Westbrook outscoring Benson by 12 or 13 points. Westbrook IS the Eagles offense, Benson is still in a timeshare. Benson may not even get more rushing yards, and Westbrook will likely cover the spread on receiving alone. There are a couple of other borderline bets that I'm passing on for now, but may do if the line improves. Nothing on VIP/BetGameDay appeals to me either. YTD: 16-15, -0.78 units 
|
|
#4
10-21-2007, 10:44 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NFL Week 7 player props thread
I was actually considering taking the Barber side vs. Peterson (my projections suggest they will end up with about the same number of points), but will probably stay away.
Anyway, here are two additional picks based on what Bodog has put up so far: Wes Welker under 6.5 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit. Complete overreaction to last week's performance. It's pretty well known that Brady targeted him based on the coverage that Dallas threw at them. It seems unlikely that the Dolphins will defend the same way. Plus, 6.5 is the type of line I'd see for only the top 5 WRs in the NFL (it's currently 8 for Houshmandzadeh, holy crap). Welker is not one of them. He's most likely to finish with 5 catches, even though Miami is admittedly horrible on defense. Lee Evans over 45.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit. I hate betting overs, but this line seems at least 10 yards too low. Evans has done nothing to justify my confidence, but prior to this year he surpassed 45 yards in 60 percent of his games. Chris McAlister is out, which weakens the Ravens secondary considerably. Plus, the Ravens are so strong against the run that the Bills may be forced to pass for most of the game (even if not behind). Trent can only get better, even if he sticks with short passes. The pickings are slim. I hope it isn't because Bodog is getting better at their lines.
|
|
#5
10-21-2007, 12:33 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NFL Week 7 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] B. Westbrook -6.5 vs. C. Benson -115 A. Peterson -4 vs. M. Barber -115 [/ QUOTE ] J. Addai -1.5 vs. M. Jones-Drew -105 [/ QUOTE ] Added: C. Pennington under 230.5 pass yds -120 His ankle is still hurt, he was listed as questionable all week. Mortensen reported that Mangini said he was "on a short leash" this week, and given the performance of him and Clemens so far this year I think there's a pretty good chance that he gets yanked before this one's over. He's been under this number of passing yards every game this season except one, which was against Buffalo (2nd worst pass defense in NFL).
|
|
#7
10-21-2007, 01:25 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NFL Week 7 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] (it's currently 8 for Houshmandzadeh, holy crap). [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I jumped on that under. [/ QUOTE ] I guess I don't see this one the same way. He's had 8 or more catches in every game so far this season. Playing at home against the Jets, you're betting that he will have his worst game of the season so far? I'm certainly not betting the over here, but taking the under doesn't seem great.
|
|
#8
10-21-2007, 03:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NFL Week 7 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
Lee Evans over 45.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit. I hate betting overs, but this line seems at least 10 yards too low. Evans has done nothing to justify my confidence, but prior to this year he surpassed 45 yards in 60 percent of his games. Chris McAlister is out, which weakens the Ravens secondary considerably. Plus, the Ravens are so strong against the run that the Bills may be forced to pass for most of the game (even if not behind). Trent can only get better, even if he sticks with short passes. [/ QUOTE ] Only took one play, ship it.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
