===Sunday NCAAF Nevada +25.5 @ Boise St O/U 61===

MyTurn2Raise · #1 10-14-2007, 02:09 PM

I have to do it again--go against the smurf turf
Nevada +26 @ Boise St bet 1.05u to win 1u

even with an excessive HFA for Boise in a likely multi-td lead, my models say to go with the Wolfpack. Then again, my models completely suck ballz this year.

MicroBob · #2 10-14-2007, 02:23 PM

I don't know myturn.
NEV can score as shown in their 48-41 loss to Fresno St so maybe they can put enough points on the board to keep it close-ish...but they just don't look very good overall imo.
Losing by a zillion to a not-so-great Nebraska team that almost lost to Ball State...and also losing to Northwestern.

BSU seems to be getting it together and improving rapidly. Very impressive win over a NMSU team that I thought would be more competitive. Maybe I'm seeing more into that than I should. But NMSU is not noticeably worse than NEV imo.
26 points is an awful lot but I just wouldn't have enough faith in a fairly lousy NMSU team to cover.

Don't think this one is worth betting.

iggymcfly · #3 10-14-2007, 06:18 PM

I'll probably get on here before kickoff, but I don't like Bookmaker and Bodog much and I'm not anxious to put money on either, so I might get stuck with +25.5. I do think Boise's being a little overvalued for their big win last week however.

iggymcfly · #4 10-14-2007, 07:44 PM

OK, I'm on officially. Risking 1.09u to win 1u on Nevada +25.5.

MicroBob · #5 10-14-2007, 07:51 PM

Decided to grab the smurfs at -25.

Austiger · #6 10-14-2007, 08:26 PM

I laid off after the NMSU debacle. I think Boise is a little overrated but that [censored] blue turf is worth about 10 points.

MyTurn2Raise · #7 10-14-2007, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I laid off after the NMSU debacle. I think Boise is a little overrated but that [censored] blue turf is worth about 10 points.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely is when they blow a whistle and take away a Nevada defensive fumble recover and 50 yd return for a TD

iggymcfly · #8 10-14-2007, 11:14 PM

Wish I'd taken a shot on the moneyline. Nevada up 3 now with 4:30 to go.

gila · #9 10-14-2007, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wish I'd taken a shot on the moneyline. Nevada up 3 now with 4:30 to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. I even told my friend when I told him I was taking Nevada that I should just start MLing all of these 20+ point dogs. Oh well, I will take the win.

MicroBob · #10 10-15-2007, 01:01 AM

Ha ha. I don't think my analysis on this one was very good.
What a surprisingly great game though.