$$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$

[gila]

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Jeez, with SC going down, I am just about ready to start MLing all these 20+ pt dogs. How many big favs have lost this year?

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2 20+ pt dog winners so far, ND looking to make it 3 this week.

Quick, get some money on Utah St. and New Mexico St. ML's!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Really, only 2? I was thinking MI/APP st., CO/OK, and Cuse/Lville were all more than 20, and those just off the top of my head. Thought a few more too, but maybe they were just "almosts". There have been a bunch though that were games in the 4th. And with the kind of odds you get...hmm.

[NajdorfDefense]

He obviously meant today.

[gila]

Oh, duh. So, how many for the year? Anyone know? And how many covers?

[Ichabod1985]

Results-
Week 6: 27-27 -4.5 Units
YTD: 147-118 +31.8 Units

[insanity31]

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Myturn, do you like the mizzou to score first prop this week? Every time I seem to bet it, it loses, but I'm on it yet again.

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good call.... finally a winner

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thank god... and wow, nebraska is horrible

[PropPlayer]

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Texas +14 -122 1.22u to win 1u (Pinnacle). WIN
Florida +7.5 -110 @ BetEd 1.65u to win 1.5 u WIN
Nebraska +6 -105 (Bet Online) 0.53 to win 0.50 LOSS
Maryland +3.5 -105 0.53u to win 0.50u (Bodog) WIN


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3-1 +2.47 units Saturday – at least the one loss was super ugly and only a ½ unit play – if I’m going to lose I’d much rather lose early than lose late.

Now 22-11 on this season NCAAF picks for +15.80u

[MicroBob]

9-6-1. I'll take it. Also correctly picked both baseball games today.
Like many these days it seems, if I had the stones to place some ML bets on the dogs I liked I could have had a really nice day.
Dogs who won straight-up for me were CIN, MIA-O, Tulane, UNC.
3 out of the 4 were 7 pt dogs or higher.
I wasn't on the super-huge upsets of the day though.

UTA - Win
Miami, Ohio - Win
CIN - win
OSU - win
Tulane - Win
Tex - Win
UNC - Win
Aub - Win
EMU - Win
Wyo - push
Ga - Loss
Bama - Loss
FSU - Loss
Ark St - Loss
Troy - Loss
UCF - loss

[MyTurn2Raise]

cross posted from my live journal page

week 6 recap
pretty bad. My road Fave picks went 0-8. I received some feedback on that. I looked through my picks and I still feel pretty good about them. I was 13-12 on road faves game ATS coming into the week for this season. I was 10-4 on road fave second half picks this year. I'm relatively sure I was picking out the good subset of a bad overall group before this week. I went back over all my models/analysis/etc for this week's picks and they all look fine. Of course, that means there is a bigger issue. The assumptions under my models and analysis have some serious flaws somewhere. ARGH!!!!!!!!!!! I keep going over things to see what needs improvement. I'll post some of the breakdowns in the next few days. More bizarre is the 0-6 on O/U picks. O/Us have always been my softballs and I was doing well on them this year until this week despite the crazy underscoring on week 1 when I tried to take advantage of the new rules (those that follow the points will see I was pretty close to right on the scoring increase, but that week 1 was considerably off the pace). The scariest thing about this week is that there were not many *bad* beats, ie close games where the breaks went against me. One thing that went well is I picked 4 underdog moneylines and all 4 won the games straight-up.

in summary: I'm perplexed. I welcome the comments I've gotten. I'm looking into everything. No one likes breaking even (doing worse without bonuses and whatnot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]). It's not disasterous, but it isn't good.


BTW--Florida/LSU ML picks will not count toward the subset records. I pretty much just played the line movement correctly and got a 0.12u freeroll on Florida winning.

*********WEEK 6*************
Week 6 summary
bet 57.21 units
down 7.76 units
13-22-1 sides/totals/even props
12-15-1 Game ATS
0-6 Game O/U
1-1 Even Props
1-0 Favored Props (W -170)
1-0 Favored ML (W-315)
4-0 Dog ML (W+148, W+150, W+152, W+200)


POTW:Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u -LOSS 23-20 ASU
ASU -315 ML @ Wazzu bet 1.58u to win 0.5u +WIN 23-20 ASU
Cincinnati ML +150 @ Rutgers bet 2u to win 3u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
Cincinnati +3.5 @ Rutgers bet 1.04u to win 1u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
LSU -7 v Florida bet 2.53u to win 2.5u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
LSU -290 ML bet 0.87u to win 0.3u +WIN 28-24 LSU
Florida +330 ML @ LSU bet 0.3u to win 0.99u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
Oregon St -3 v Arizona bet 2.68u to win 2.5u +WIN 31-16 Oregon St
Virginia -10 @ MTSU bet 2.63u to win 2.5u -LOSS 23-21 Virginia
Auburn -7.5 v Vandy bet 2.1u to win 2u +WIN 35-7 Auburn
Ohio -4 @ Buffalo bet 2u to win 2u -LOSS 31-10 Buffalo
Texas +12.5 N Oklahoma bet 2u to win 2u +WIN 28-21 Oklahoma
Troy -18.5 @ FIU bet 2.1u to win 2u -LOSS 34-16 Troy
NMST +25.5 @ Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u -LOSS
V Tech +5.5 @ Clemson bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
V Tech +200 ML @ Clemson bet 1u to win 2u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
NIU -3.5 @ Temple bet 1.06u to win 1u -LOSS 16-15 Temple
Illinois -3 v Wisconsin bet 1u to win 1.2u +WIN 31-26 Illinois
Miami Fl -7 @ UNC bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 33-27 UNC
Wake -7.5 @ Duke bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 41-36 Wake
C Mich +13 @ Ball St bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 58-38 C Mich
Wyoming -3 v TCU bet 1.05u to win 1u +-PUSH 24-21 Wyoming
Miami OH +9 @ Kent bet 1u to win 1.02u +WIN 20-13 Miami OH
La Tech +13 @ Ole Miss bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 24-0 Ole Miss
Alabama -11 v Houston bet 1.02u to win 1u -LOSS 30-24 Bama
Maryland +3.5 v G Tech bet 0.53u to win 0.5u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
Maryland +148 ML v G Tech bet 0.5u to win 0.74u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
ECU +3.5 v UCF bet 0.54u to win 0.5u +WIN 52-38 ECU
ECU +152 ML v UCF bet 0.5u to win 0.76u +WIN 52-38 ECU
Purdue +7 v Ohio St bet 1u to win 1u -LOSS 23-7 Ohio St
Air Force -5 v UNLV bet 1u to win 1u +WIN 31-14 Air Force
Ark St -2.5 @ UL-Monroe bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 30-13 ULM
S Miss -20 v Rice bet 1.04u to win 1u -LOSS 31-29 Rice
Kentucky +5 @ S Carolina bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 38-23 S Car
Utah +15.5 @ L'Ville bet 1.09u to win 1u +WIN 44-35 Utah

Darrell Mack o19.5 rush attempts for Utah @ L'Ville bet 1.15u to win 1u +WIN
Longest TD o52.5 yards for Utah/L'ville bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS
Mizzou to score first v Nebraska bet 1.7u to win 1u +WIN

N'Western/MSU u53.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 89 points
Kansas/K St o54.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 54 points
V Tech/Clemson u41 bet 1.03u to win 1u -LOSS 64 points
Georgia/Tennessee o56.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 49 points
Arizona/Oregon St o54 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 47 points
Notre Dame/UCLA o47.5 bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 26 points

[im a model]

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POTW:Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u -LOSS 23-20 ASU
ASU -315 ML @ Wazzu bet 1.58u to win 0.5u +WIN 23-20 ASU
Cincinnati ML +150 @ Rutgers bet 2u to win 3u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
Cincinnati +3.5 @ Rutgers bet 1.04u to win 1u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
LSU -7 v Florida bet 2.53u to win 2.5u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
LSU -290 ML bet 0.87u to win 0.3u +WIN 28-24 LSU
Florida +330 ML @ LSU bet 0.3u to win 0.99u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
Oregon St -3 v Arizona bet 2.68u to win 2.5u +WIN 31-16 Oregon St
Virginia -10 @ MTSU bet 2.63u to win 2.5u -LOSS 23-21 Virginia
Auburn -7.5 v Vandy bet 2.1u to win 2u +WIN 35-7 Auburn
Ohio -4 @ Buffalo bet 2u to win 2u -LOSS 31-10 Buffalo
Texas +12.5 N Oklahoma bet 2u to win 2u +WIN 28-21 Oklahoma
Troy -18.5 @ FIU bet 2.1u to win 2u -LOSS 34-16 Troy
NMST +25.5 @ Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u -LOSS
V Tech +5.5 @ Clemson bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
V Tech +200 ML @ Clemson bet 1u to win 2u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
NIU -3.5 @ Temple bet 1.06u to win 1u -LOSS 16-15 Temple
Illinois -3 v Wisconsin bet 1u to win 1.2u +WIN 31-26 Illinois
Miami Fl -7 @ UNC bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 33-27 UNC
Wake -7.5 @ Duke bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 41-36 Wake
C Mich +13 @ Ball St bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 58-38 C Mich
Wyoming -3 v TCU bet 1.05u to win 1u +-PUSH 24-21 Wyoming
Miami OH +9 @ Kent bet 1u to win 1.02u +WIN 20-13 Miami OH
La Tech +13 @ Ole Miss bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 24-0 Ole Miss
Alabama -11 v Houston bet 1.02u to win 1u -LOSS 30-24 Bama
Maryland +3.5 v G Tech bet 0.53u to win 0.5u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
Maryland +148 ML v G Tech bet 0.5u to win 0.74u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
ECU +3.5 v UCF bet 0.54u to win 0.5u +WIN 52-38 ECU
ECU +152 ML v UCF bet 0.5u to win 0.76u +WIN 52-38 ECU
Purdue +7 v Ohio St bet 1u to win 1u -LOSS 23-7 Ohio St
Air Force -5 v UNLV bet 1u to win 1u +WIN 31-14 Air Force
Ark St -2.5 @ UL-Monroe bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 30-13 ULM
S Miss -20 v Rice bet 1.04u to win 1u -LOSS 31-29 Rice
Kentucky +5 @ S Carolina bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 38-23 S Car
Utah +15.5 @ L'Ville bet 1.09u to win 1u +WIN 44-35 Utah

Darrell Mack o19.5 rush attempts for Utah @ L'Ville bet 1.15u to win 1u +WIN
Longest TD o52.5 yards for Utah/L'ville bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS
Mizzou to score first v Nebraska bet 1.7u to win 1u +WIN

N'Western/MSU u53.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 89 points
Kansas/K St o54.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 54 points
V Tech/Clemson u41 bet 1.03u to win 1u -LOSS 64 points
Georgia/Tennessee o56.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 49 points
Arizona/Oregon St o54 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 47 points
Notre Dame/UCLA o47.5 bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 26 points

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it looks like youre passing up a lot of value by only betting like 40 games a week. try betting on all the games next week and see where that takes you.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I understand your criticism and it (making too many plays) is one I've heard before. I've taken note of it and continually looked at it. Here is why I'm still not against it

--I don't believe NCAAF betting markets are efficient. I do believe it is possible to beat it betting over 1/2 the board.
(underlying premise to everything)
--My small unit plays, even after a recent dreadful downturn are still enough over .500 that I'm covering the juice. Just meeting the juice is a win in the current environment with the amount of deposit bonuses and rollovers available.
--It gives me a baseline to evaluate my weighting of units, which I've only recently taken on in my gambling career. My multi-unit plays are doing a bit better, but it's not ridic, excepting for my POTW which is 23-12 alltime. Damn...that's a really tiny sample though.
--Each bet gives me some experience. I'm doing pretty well off the pokering of late, so that's stable for now. However, I don't expect pokering to continue to be so bountiful. Thus, I am still OK doing ever so slightly above breakeven if it helps me develop the skills to make more somewhere down the line. It's a learning cost.

Many moons ago, there was a thread that many successful 2p2 gamblers actually volunteered their ROIs and whatnot. Of course, Thremp pwned all. IIRC, mine was the lowest of the regular gamblers by a significant margin. My ROI is 0.4%.
Just like with my poker, though, volume > quality.

But, your criticism is valid and something I think about and continually evaluate. Depending on which mood altering substance is influencing me, I agree or disagree with the sentiment.

ty for the feedback....this one and road faves have me breaking down and evaluating my whole 'system' including the assumptions that lie beneath the mental models