Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill

[NHFunkii]

dave,
wtf.

even ignoring everything else you said, how does 'I don't see why a flush draw wouldn't play it this way' lead to 'WA/WB FTW'

HELP

[Dave D]

Ok let me clarify one thing, I probably should have included the line about a flush draw with the rest of the discussion of possible holdings. Read that statement as seperate from the WA/WB comment. The WA/WB comment was a suggestion for what line I would take here. I'm not saying flush draw so WA/WB.

Ok, so lets talk about this hand and start with what we know, and obvious things. Two things make this hand hard to play:

1. Villian is a good player, unlike most of the rest of the field

2. We are deep stacked.

Obviously against a normal (bad) villian and if we weren't so deep stacked we would 3bet flop or maybe just call flop and try to get it AI on the turn.

But here, I think we know that villian is a thinking player, and I think we also have to assume that villian knows who Ansky is. Even though someone else said that they talked to him and he played the hand assuming Ansky was a normal tourney donk, the reality is that at high stakes most good players probably know each other, especially someone like ansky.

So we know that villian knows who Ansky is, and that means some leveling is probably going to happen here. To be honest, I think Ansky is outleveling himself here and its probably best the play the hand straightforward. So we know that villian is very likely to try to pull a move, or at least push a very marginal edge and be very aggressive because he knows he has FE against Ansky. I mean, the fact that Ansky posted this is proof of that, he considered (and maybe did) folding here.

Do people check/raise flush draws on the flop? Yeah, I do it, especially with fewer other players in like this when I think I can get folds. Is a straight draw within villian's range? Yeah probably, and same reasoning. Hence why I think one of those is likely (although the flush draw more so) given this flop action.

As I said, I think JJ would have re-raised PF, if only to get info on Ansky. He's a good player, and knows that JJ is gonna suck OOP against another good player and another villian. I think TT probably re-raises PF too, but it's close (personally my standard line is to reraise TT, but whatever).

I think it's pretty obvious that villian would have re-raised AA/KK PF, so those are strongly discounted.
Villian could have called with 77, 88, or even 55 here. I mean obviously any pair is within his range. He might have even called with AK/AQ sooted clubs. That would make sense given the action too.

I mean, with a lot of the top players on this forum, their strength comes from playing post flop and their range is any two PF. Are we willing to say this (his range is almost any two) for this guy? Probably not. But I do think 44, 55 were in his calling range too, and I think that villian is smart enough to see that the flop came all low, and Ansky is standard c-betting, but is likely to have missed with like maybe half his PF raising range (which is also wide, but not that wide b/c Ansky is EP, AK/AQ/AJ all missed, plus hands like TJs etc).

So to me, it looks like we're behind like 1/3 of villian's hands (33, 22, 66, 99), and ahead of 77, 88, TT, 44, 55 and flush or straight draws. I doubt villian would have two pair here, I mean would he really call with 63?

I guess the flush draw gets discounted when he bets out turn. But if he wants to rep a set, wouldn't he bet out turn?

Personally I just don't play scared of sets. If someone outflopped me in a 3 way pot good for him. No one's gonna blame you for stacking off with an overpair on this board. Yes I realize that this is a deep stacked situation, so Ansky could maybe get away from it, as opposed to if stacks were like half what they are, but still, are we really talking about folding with an overpair just because we got someone playing back at us (which is what we want with an overpair isn't it?). This thread sort of reminds me (and I don't mean to insult it) of the thread Betgo made about folding AK PF when him and villian "potted it back and forth". I mean are you really trying to narrow a villian's range so much that you can fold a premium hand?

I suppose WA/WB isn't really appropriate here because we're putting in 40% of our stack if we call turn. However, I just don't think I can fold here. Part of me wants to just call turn, and call any river, which will probably be not a push (3000 from villian seems about right on the river) and even if we lose we still have a pretty good stack given the blinds. I don't think a push from us ever gets called on the turn from hands we beat, except maybe like A6? I don't really think it accomplishes that much, but then again I think it's the safest line because we keep the flush or straight draws from coming in on the river. Villian can't call a push for ~6k into a 6k pot with a flush draw, or a straight draw. So yeah, let me revise my suggestion and just say push turn, villian folding is fine because we win a pretty big pot, rather than lose an even bigger one on the river.

I hope this makes sense, fire away everyone.

[T_Mac]

If I knew he was good I'd probably fold flop. If I didn't know he was good I might go broke, it is the Sunday Million, he could have 77. Calling flop and push turn.

[Stumpy]

Funkii, all clear now?

Villian is a good player.
Therefore, he'll always reraise AA/KK preflop.
Against another good player who he assumes knows who he is, he'll check-raise bluff him on the flop a lot.
Then when called, he'll dump his entire stack on the turn and river trying to get Ansky to fold.

That's way more profitable than taking advantage of the 3,000 bad players in the tournament.

(Also, JJ and TT have no set value OOP 200BB deep)

[uclabruinz]

This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

[NHFunkii]

got it stumpy, thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

my math was obviously extremely sketchy, but it is an example of how calling the flop but folding the turn could be +EV (in mine it was almost neutral) whereas calling the turn is massively -EV

apparently you think they're betting anything they raise 95% of the time, which my assumptions disagreed with, which explains the discrepancy. you really think 95%?

edit: btw I do think the flop is probably a fold based on my intuitive summing up of all the factors I ignored in my post, but I'm not sure.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Funkii, all clear now?

Villian is a good player.
Therefore, he'll always reraise AA/KK preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

All I'm saying with that is that I think the need to reraise AA/KK PF outweighs his possible trickyness tendancies. Even if he's very tricky, he'd still reraise PF.

[ QUOTE ]


Against another good player who he assumes knows who he is, he'll check-raise bluff him on the flop a lot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say villian knows that Ansky knows who he is. I said that villian knows who Ansky is. There's a difference.

Bluffing (really semi bluffing) isn't unusual?

[ QUOTE ]

Then when called, he'll dump his entire stack on the turn and river trying to get Ansky to fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that, it's also not his entire stack. Also, I said the FD is discounted with the turn bet out, but I was talking about the possible FD only on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

That's way more profitable than taking advantage of the 3,000 bad players in the tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

Insert jokes often made on this forum about 4 betting light against other good players.

[ QUOTE ]

(Also, JJ and TT have no set value OOP 200BB deep)

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure that that has to do with anything. I said JJ would have raised PF, but TT is kinda close.

[Stumpy]

Dave, I'm not going to get into this too deep, but:

I have very few strategy posts. When I make one, I'm pretty self-concious about not sounding like an idiot, so I spend a lot of time working over answers, and then trying to condense the response down to important points. This is vital to a useful discussion. I'm quite sure many people skipped your reply entirely. Beyond that, trying to reduce a reply to vital information really exposes weak points, contradictions, or other mistakes.

I realize Funkii asked you to elaborate, but try to keep it directed, and expand further on one point if Funkii has a follow-up question.

Here are my StumpyNotes on "DaveD raps with WTFunkii":

Two thinking players.
Preflop his calling range is very wide, but I believe TT+ would reraise. (TT-,AQs+,AQo+,Connectors)

Postflop, the check-raise could be a draw, a set, or an underpair.
We're ahead of 2/3rds of these, so I call and see a turn. (No exact range given. Pairs + ??)

The turn is a brick. I don't like calling, I don't like folding, and if I push nothing we beat calls.
So I think we should push and get rid of the draws. <No EV Calculations Provided>

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread sort of reminds me (and I don't mean to insult it) of the thread Betgo made about folding AK PF when him and villian "potted it back and forth". I mean are you really trying to narrow a villian's range so much that you can fold a premium hand?



[/ QUOTE ]
In the thread I posted, I had KK with 250xBB, villain and I potted it back and forth preflop. I am not bad enough to keep raising with AK. The consensus was I should have stopped potting it, and as played I had a fold. Of course I got allin against AA and busted.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really disagree with this, there are plenty of hands which will c/r flop, then slow way down on the turn.