Borat second weekend line

mack23 · #1 11-07-2006, 09:56 PM

I don't see any way this turns out to be the largest opening weekend ever in less than 1000 theaters. I already have 819 max bets in on the under 32.5 mil.

Just kidding. I got very bitter when the new line went up on Pinny. Anyone going to try to make back losses with this weekends line? Thoughts? Domer? (cringe)

updated title per request -P

brendanb438 · #2 11-08-2006, 12:11 AM

I was shocked as hell that Pinny put this one up again. First movie to ever get its second weekend up on any site.

The question is did most of the people who really really wanted to see this one see it already?

Will the Midwest and South come out in force like the East/West Coast did to see the movie this past weekend?

Will Borat get to rub his junk in our faces for a second weekend in a row? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mack, what do you mean by less than a 1000 theatres?

-Brendan

MyTurn2Raise · #3 11-08-2006, 12:23 AM

as a conservative midwesterner, I can only give my opinion that I didn't think the movie was very good

I don't see it working well in those markets

domer2 · #4 11-08-2006, 12:36 AM

Borat only dropped 53% on Monday. For comparison, The Departed dropped 48% on its first Monday.

Point being, this is holding incredibly well. A movie that opens with that much money on a Friday should drop on Saturday. It didn't, it went up. It should've had a monster Sunday drop. Didn't again, tons of sell outs. It should've had a 60%+ Monday drop. Nope.

This will have multiple sell outs next weekend, and there will be repeat viewings.

It really is stupid to put these lines up, because we are going to be getting mid-week hold numbers all week. Obviously there are questions over whether it can expand its box office when it expands its theaters, but why wouldn't it? What's going against it? Incredible reviews, incredible word of mouth, tons of "press" that this is one of those must see movies (like The Departed), no competition from any new movies coming out, and its runtime is less than 90 minutes. Finally, this will be in the biggest screens in the megaplexes.

I'm on the over. Once you get to 32.5, 33.5, 34, etc. I get less sure. But 31.5 is a very nice spot for the over.

Thremp · #5 11-08-2006, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
as a conservative midwesterner, I can only give my opinion that I didn't think the movie was very good

I don't see it working well in those markets

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I've heard. But meh... People were seeing. And I'm sure people from those other states will see it as well.

I'll save my dollas for my own picks. More EV.

brendanb438 · #6 11-08-2006, 01:23 AM

Well the movie people have been comparing Borat to in regard to crushing the Per Theatre Average and for sheer surprise in overall numbers is Fahrenheit 9/11. This movie amazed people with what it managed to do its opening weekend for a total of $24 Million in around 870 theatres.

Well it expanded the 2nd weekend to 1725 theatres because of its huge success and what did it do, $28 Mill? $32 Mill? $40 Mill? Nope $16.2 for a 33% drop from its opening weekend. Key reasons being the opening weekend theatres just like with Borat were picked based on location, location, location. Will the theatres that this did huge in have normal drops of around 25% to 35% for the 2nd weekend? If so look at $15 to $18 Million coming in from those theatres which were picked for a reason. Will the other 1700 theatres were awareness is low manage a $8000 to $10000 PTA? That number being what most movies wish to achieve.

MI3 when released earlier this year managed to do 90% of its opening weekend's business in around 25% of its opening locations. This just goes to show how important location is.

I believe that Fox did an excellent job of picking Borat's locations were awareness was best and it shows. As MyTurn mentions the key to this doing over $31.5 Mill will be how well the Midwest and the South receives this movie. These locations are were awareness is the lowest and are also the reasons Fox scaled the release back on Borat from around 2500 to 837 theatres. I think if you want to play the over take it for huge +odds, I got in 1 bet a few hours ago on it at +180. If you want to take the under also get it at good odds because this could go either way. History points to the under but Borat is Borat. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Also forgot to mention 5 new major releases this weekend including a direct competitor in Stranger Than Fiction which being a Will Farrell comedy I could see it doing better in the south and midwest than Borat will do.

Oh yeah numbers for 9/11s first 3 weekends
6/25/2004 1 $23,920,637 868 $27,558 $24,078,959 5
7/2/2004 2 $16,282,043 -31.93% 1,725 $9,439 $55,373,406 12
7/9/2004 4 $11,030,898 -32.25% 2,011 $5,485 $80,121,002 19

6/25/2004 1 $8,565,000 +11,474.32% 868 $9,868 $8,723,000 3
6/26/2004 1 $8,150,000 -4.85% 868 $9,389 $16,873,000 4
6/27/2004 1 $7,210,000 -11.53% 868 $8,306 $24,078,959 5
6/28/2004 1 $4,416,000 -38.75% 868 $5,088 $28,495,000 6

As you can see its drop from Sunday to Monday was even less than Borat's drop for what it is worth.

-Brendan

domer2 · #7 11-08-2006, 01:56 AM

Borat has a small chance of doing better than all of the new releases combined. They're all weak openers; this is a dump weekend for the studios and has been for a while.

Fahrenheit 9/11 has a totally different demographic, is a polarizing movie (its expansion failed miserably), and isn't very likely to have repeat viewings.

But go ahead and do whatever on Borat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice....

Thremp · #8 11-08-2006, 02:19 AM

Stop posting everyone. I'm going to lose more money on this chickenshit.

mack23 · #9 11-08-2006, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
mack, what do you mean by less than a 1000 theaters?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sarcasm, as Borat did indeed have the biggest opening weekend ever for a film shown in less than 1000 theaters.

brendanb438 · #10 11-08-2006, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Borat has a small chance of doing better than all of the new releases combined. They're all weak openers; this is a dump weekend for the studios and has been for a while.

Fahrenheit 9/11 has a totally different demographic, is a polarizing movie (its expansion failed miserably), and isn't very likely to have repeat viewings.

But go ahead and do whatever on Borat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice....

[/ QUOTE ]

9/11 was also a very well received East/West Coast movie just like Borat which had way higher awareness in those places. Both movies are very similar in the fact that awareness is way lower in the midwest and south and that they aren't geared towards those conservative folks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyone seen any numbers for how Borat did opening weekend in theatres in the Midwest? I know it did its best business in NY and Cali as expected.

-Brendan