AJs in vs. SB in RR'd pot .. questions on all streets, esp. turn.

poincaraux · #1 11-09-2007, 12:54 PM

Villain is U2KILLERS. I mostly play $50NL, so I don't know much about him. I assume he doesn't know much about me either. He had his stack when I got here and hasn't done anything to really stand out so far. He seems a little nitty and maybe a little over aggro, but nothing note-worthy. As far as stats go, I have him at 14.78/11.74/3.0 over 230 hands. Similar stats from SB, but obv. not a ton of data. His aggression factors are 1/8/infinity for flop/turn/river.

Pre-flop: this seems pretty standard to me. Suited broadway ace in position, nothing so makes me want to pop it again pre, but I can't see a fold. Yes?

Flop: I figure his range is basically 1) crap that missed, so all I'm getting is this c-bet 2) AA, ATs+, AQo+. How likely is ATs? If I take that out, I'm behind. Anyway, I call here. Raising seemed like a bad idea because I'd get all the money in vs. hands that beat me, but I didn't think he'd fold enough for it to be profitable.

Turn: Well, I hit my 2 pair, so I beat AK, so I figure I want the money in now. Any bet I can think of commits me, but I think a shove looks a little too strong, so I bet a little under 2/3-pot.

The turn reallllly confused me, though. Why'd he check? He can't want to give a free card to a draw, right? And he can't have a heart draw. And, if I have a draw, there's got to be a good chance I check behind. So what does he check into me here? It really felt like he might be trying to c/r here, but it seems like such a strange place for that.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $119.40
MP: $278.65
Hero (CO): $121.75
BTN: $80.75
SB: $114.40
BB: $25.90

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN folds, SB raises to $13, BB folds, Hero calls $9.50

Flop: ($27) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $18, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($63) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $45

Imrahil · #2 11-09-2007, 12:59 PM

Fold PF. Turn bet is fine. Could be arguments for checking though which isn't bad.

Burcak · #3 11-09-2007, 01:02 PM

I think I'd check behind, and call a psb on the river even if the board doesn't improve. You have position, and can bet yourself if you hit.

I am not saying you are not ahead most of the time, but I feel you can't put as much money in the pot if you are ahead, but will forced to put all your stack in if you are behind.

If he were loose postflop it would be another story. But if he has AK, I think you will get as much value from him as possible on the river anyway. And if you make your flush, you will still get one psb in I believe.

poincaraux · #4 11-09-2007, 01:55 PM

After some more thought/discussion, I can see why I should dump it pre-flop. I was a little too excited about the fact that it was suited.

I was really torn between betting or checking behind on the turn. What do you think he does with AK? Is he more likely to fold the turn, but call the river? That'd be another argument for checking. I bet because I wanted his whole stack if he had AK.

Anyway, he goes for the crai, I call, he flips over AQ. I think for a while. River decision is hard, but I spike a J for the boat.

What do people think of his turn c/r? In his place, I'd lead out so as not to give free cards to the draws.

stickdude · #5 11-09-2007, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do people think of his turn c/r? In his place, I'd lead out so as not to give free cards to the draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably not putting you on a draw given the preflop action. You're not floating the flop bet with a smaller pocket pair given the Ace on the flop. So, if he can discount draws and smaller pocket pairs, your most likely range is a big Ace (AT+) that you'll bet on the turn if checked to.

It's actually a good spot for a CRAI.

Lucky · #6 11-09-2007, 02:10 PM

fold pf. against this guy, turn check is good.

Unknown Soldier · #7 11-09-2007, 02:10 PM

i prefer a push over a crai on this board, but the main reason isn't to protect against draws

poincaraux · #8 11-09-2007, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i prefer a push over a crai on this board, but the main reason isn't to protect against draws

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, man, i feel like this is a test.

is it because he thinks i'm pretty likely to have AK, and i might not give him three streets of calling?

Unknown Soldier · #9 11-09-2007, 02:35 PM

there are 2 main reasons not to slow play on a drawy board. 1 of them is to charge against draws.

to avoid confusion we're talking abiut why villain should push AQ, right?

poincaraux · #10 11-09-2007, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
there are 2 main reasons not to slow play on a drawy board. 1 of them is to charge against draws.

to avoid confusion we're talking abiut why villain should push AQ, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, we're talking about when you said that villain should push on this board. i'm taking that to mean that your reasons are based mostly on the board, not on stack size or pot size.

so, are you saying that the two reasons are

1) to charge against draws
2) to get money in before scare cards scare off your opponent

and that you're talking about reason number two here, or am i missing something really obvious?