*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***

[kyro]

SNF Plays.
Record 8-5-1 (+3.97u)
ATS: 4-4-1 (+1.33u)
Totals: 4-1-0 (+2.64u)

Pats -15 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

Maybe when the Pats beat a team not named the Peyton Mannings by less than 17 points I'll start fading them when they are giving less than that. Until then, nah, I'll ride 'em.

Pats/Bills U46.5
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

See explanation in the posts above. The Bills should pat themselves on the back if they get 14, but even that's a lofty goal for a team that scored 30 against the Jets in two games, 13 against the Dolphins, and 14 against the Broncos. They have a good enough D to keep the Pats from blowing this game too far out of the water though. 31-10 Pats.

[Jazzy3113]

Its surprising that on Yahoo, where you only pick SU winners, the pats have a slightly lower percentage pitt, dal, indy, phi and gb.

[psuasskicker]

No Lynch now, so I'm betting Pats -15.5.

- C -

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
No Lynch now, so I'm betting Pats -15.5.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]


+ No nickel db, banged up at almost every position, Anthony Thomas v Pats d = ugly.
2u on NWE solely due to bye and no Lynch [and lack of DBs.] I got NWE as 18 better with Lynch at 100%, so...

[philfan05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me a BSP, but I don't understand how NE doesn't win by 21+ like they have been doing all year. Buffalo is a terrible team and lost by 31 points the first time they played each other. What has changed other than the location of the game? Does homefield make the Bills 15 points better than they were at NE?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buffalo is a terrible team? Are you on crack?

And if you really think that because the Pats won 38-7 earlier in the year it means they are 31 points better than the Bills, you're on crack again.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NFL.com
Buffalo
Offense:
Points 15.9 (ranked 27th)
Yards: 268 (ranked 31st)
Pass Yards: 164 (ranked 28th)
Rushing: 105 (ranked 17th) Now with Lynch out this drops off

Defense
Points: 18 (9th-sounds good right?)
Yards: 360 (28th-oops)
Passing: 241 (26th-oops again)
Rushing: 118 (20th-enough said)

Wins:
13-10 over Miami(0-9)
33-21 over Cinci (3-6)
17-14 over NYJ (1-8)
13-3 over NYJ (1-8)
19-14 over Balt (4-5)

Losses:


Denver
Pitt
NE
Dallas (at home, Dallas had how many Turnovers this game?)


I'm sorry that you think I'm on crack, but the numbers speak for themselves. With Lynch now out -15.5 seems to be a mortal lock unless there are fluke TDs in the 4th Quarter by Buffalo.

[kyro]

Buffalo's defense is averagish. DVOA has them 14th. Their special teams are very good. I'm not sure you know what the word terrible means.

Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Miami, NYJ (2x), and Balt?

They've been much better when they're healthy. But they're not. And NE isn't a "mostly solid offense".

- C -

[kyro]

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Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Miami, NYJ (2x), and Balt?

They've been much better when they're healthy. But they're not. And NE isn't a "mostly solid offense".

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami is actually above average with respect to DVOA. So yes, they've played 3 poor offenses out of their 9 games. What a weak schedule.

[kyro]

I'm actually amazed that I have to supply evidence to back up my claim that Buffalo isn't a "terrible" team.

I mean, I have NE -15. I'm considering putting another unit down on -15.5. But it's not because Buffalo sucks, and anybody who thinks Buffalo is a terrible team is flat out wrong.

[NajdorfDefense]

Buffalo is not a good team as injured as they will be this week. That is inarguable.
The only query is, are they 15.5 worse than NWE off a bye and missing their best player[s].