Pooh-Bah Redux: Blind Stealing.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll make it even easier than usual for everybody: just quote my next line and move on.

"tl;dr"

[/ QUOTE ]

But looks like it has potential so I'll have you know I saved this as a word file that I'll probably never read much like I did with Fim's posts.

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
If your blind steals are a standard 4xBB, then you will wager 4xBB to win 1.5xBB, so if you immediately win 3 times out of 11 you will show an immediate preflop profit, even if you never win a hand when you don’t win preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[deaders]

Against a habitual stealer who will attempt a steal with pretty much any two, re-stealing can be very profitable. You have to be careful and choose the right times to do it, but it has the benfit of 1) slowing down or stopping their attempts to steal your blinds and 2) the donkey stealer being tempted to overplay their crappy hand and donate more money to you.

[Blarg]

Does this all account adequately for the number of times a caller can't beat at least a pair of two's but has at least some sort of a draw?

I find at low levels that people love draws to death and will pay a high price to play them, even non-nut draws, even heads up, even without the pot odds. This does mean they pay you off when they don't hit, but they don't have to hit -- they can pair up along the way, once or twice, trip up, hit a flush while originally going for a straight, etc. And then when they do hit, you can be into them for quite a few bets.

Am I simply overstating the times opponents will fall in love with their draws and take them to the river? Because it seems like that's where a lot of my profit comes from, too. Can I have it both ways, thinking they'll fold enough to my blind steals and at the same time seeing them calling my nut-peddling arse all the way down on an AKJxx flop with a pair of 8's?

[derosnec]

Is there anywhere to go in PT to see if my steals have been +EV? I didnt read your post or the thread, so if it was answered already, apologies.

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
Brilliant stuff Pokey, already looking forward to a Carpal\'Tunnel post =)

[/ QUOTE ]

Once he gets up to 2000

[thedustbustr]

<---
2500 :P

this is good sh1t pokey

[Misanthrope]

[ QUOTE ]

If your blind steals are a standard 4xBB, then you will wager 4xBB to win 1.5xBB, so if you immediately win 3 times out of 11 you will show an immediate preflop profit, even if you never win a hand when you don’t win preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

By my calulations you must be successful 73% of the time to show an immediate profit.

1.5x = 4(1-x)
5.5x = 4
x = 0.727

Can you please comment on this as it has distracted me from the rest of your post.

[HoldenFoldem]

great post , Pokey. I've archived it for future reference. I "finally get it" re the blinds. ty

[TheWorstPlayer]

Pokey,

Nice post. However, if you open with AA on the BN, are you 'blind stealing'?

TWP