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View Poll Results: Will the PS3 flop?
Complete flop 12 11.76%
Less sales than expected 29 28.43%
Average sales 12 11.76%
Above average sales 6 5.88%
PS3 will be an enormous success 14 13.73%
I don't care - results. 29 28.43%
Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 11-20-2007, 09:39 AM
Unknown Soldier Unknown Soldier is offline
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Posts: 8,587
Default At least I\'m getting the low.

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.000.80
US: $406.40
SB: $390.00
BB: $400.00

Pre-flop: (4 players) US is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">US raises to $18</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($58, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">US bets $40</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players)
UTG checks, US checks.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $200</font>, US??


no reads on main villain, one of my 1st hands at the table. Other guy is taggish i think. Villain's limp/call would suggest he's at least somewhat donkish.

I don't think there's anything to discuss really, just want your general opinion. Here are the only reasons for your choice imo.


fold: he has a FH/better straight too often

call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range.

shove: same as call, but we are ahead of his range.


if you have anything to add to that, please do o/w just vote, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #2  
Old 11-20-2007, 09:43 AM
ofishstix ofishstix is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

[ QUOTE ]
call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think we're behind his range for betting but that we are behind his range for calling a shove.
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  #3  
Old 11-20-2007, 09:44 AM
Unknown Soldier Unknown Soldier is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo
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  #4  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:40 AM
terp terp is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

two things are key here:
1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this
2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call.

&lt;42% equity: fold
42%-50%: call
&gt;50%: shove

i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+
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  #5  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:44 AM
Bramsterdam Bramsterdam is offline
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Location: I\'m from Holland, where the [censored] u from?
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).

I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push
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  #6  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:45 AM
terp terp is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

[ QUOTE ]
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).

I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that simple; see above
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  #7  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:50 AM
Bramsterdam Bramsterdam is offline
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Location: I\'m from Holland, where the [censored] u from?
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).

I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that simple; see above

[/ QUOTE ]Good point [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I agree on your advice (folding 3x, calling A2, shoving 76 and boats).
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  #8  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:51 AM
nazahl nazahl is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

[ QUOTE ]
two things are key here:
1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this
2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call.

&lt;42% equity: fold
42%-50%: call
&gt;50%: shove

i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very good post
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  #9  
Old 11-20-2007, 12:12 PM
Noam Chomsky Noam Chomsky is offline
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Posts: 919
Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).

I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that simple; see above

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think it's slightly more complicated but don't think it's much more complicated at all unless I'm missing something:

Board: 3h 4c 3s 9s 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.917% 56.20% 03.72% 68 4.50 { As2d }
Hand 1: 40.083% 36.36% 03.72% 44 4.50 { 99, 55-33, A3s-A2s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 76s, 73s, 63s, 53s, 43s, 32s, A3o-A2o, K3o, Q3o, J3o, T3o, 93o, 83o, 76o, 73o, 63o, 53o, 43o, 32o }

In this scenario, I'm giving him any 3 (along with any fh and any straight and we're way ahead and we should shove.

Take away just a few of the least likely combos with a three and we're looking at less than 30% equity here in which case we should fold. I'm pretty sure I shove or fold here.
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  #10  
Old 11-20-2007, 12:19 PM
grando grando is offline
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Default Re: At least I\'m getting the low.

76 is pretty much the same hand as A2 here
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