Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?

iggymcfly · #1 10-05-2007, 04:45 PM

Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here.

Daliman · #2 10-05-2007, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's likely not as square as you think, but yes, there is a decent pro-Yankee bias in most lines, so if you already like their opponent in a game, you are usually getting a few extra cents on your line.

Thremp · #3 10-05-2007, 04:49 PM

iggy,

You're not really looking at predictive stats. All of those are things that happened.

FakeKramer · #4 10-05-2007, 04:51 PM

Looking at the starting pitchers' ERA = bad strategy for weighing your chances in a sports bet !??

Lol @ that.

iggymcfly · #5 10-05-2007, 04:54 PM

Well, Carmona has a better WHIP and K/BB than Pettitte too. I was looking more for where the line was coming from when listing the earlier stats. I guess the Yanks do have a better run differential than the Indians do, but still. It doesn't seem like anywhere near enough for them to be favored on the road.

SL__72 · #6 10-05-2007, 04:56 PM

Carmona's xFIP is about half a run better then Pettite's... and that doesn't even properly reward him for his sick GB%.

dankhank · #7 10-05-2007, 04:58 PM

no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason.

rsigley · #8 10-05-2007, 05:17 PM

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no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason.

[/ QUOTE ]

no doubt

statistics are useless against the yankees

SunOfBeach · #9 10-05-2007, 05:20 PM

That's only if your sample size on Carmona (and Pettitte) is restricted to this season, though. If you regress to the mean using PECOTA or something like that, then they're similar.

paperchamp · #10 10-05-2007, 05:22 PM

Solid analysis guys.