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#11
10-06-2007, 09:01 AM
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Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
[ QUOTE ]
The real key here though is the home advantage. Phil Steele rates LSU's home advantage at 5 points and it's well known that the advantage is much higher for night games. [/ QUOTE ] This would be difficult to analyze but I doubt that it's true. LSU fans get well and truly drunk for night games, which means that they are crazy in Q1 but tend to peter out if things aren't going well. 
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#12
10-06-2007, 09:36 AM
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Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
But "things aren't going well" would mean if they were getting crushed by 17 or something, right?
If it's a 3 or 7 point deficit in the 4th Q I imagine that the crew of drunked cajun's would still have enough energy to keep it going. Obviously they understand this is a huge game. Also, I'm not so sure that fans getting drunk for a night game and not being very into it if things don't go well is such a unique thing just for LSU but I guess it could be. Does such behavior really happen more frequently there?
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#13
10-06-2007, 11:52 AM
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Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
[ QUOTE ]
Was just about to go to bed with my alarm set for 9:30 MST when I realized that the Georgia Tech game's not televised. Now, I'm not sure if I'm going to get up before my last play, so I'm just going to post it now: Minnesota +14 (-108) at Indiana completely agree. this is my POTW plus Minny on the money line. I'm pretty sure it will get taken for a full 2 units, but if not, it could be as low as 0.25u. FWIW, it's actually available at +100 at 5dimes right now, so if you want to follow, that's a lot better bet, but I don't have money there at the moment and I couldn't get a transfer done before bed. In fact, if you really want to help me out, you could arb the +14(+100) on 5dimes with the -14(+106) and -14 (+104) (after commission) on Matchbook and ensure that my Minny bet gets taken. Cheers. [/ QUOTE ]
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#15
10-06-2007, 05:37 PM
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Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW Dr Bob is also on ASU this is lining up to be a disaster [/ QUOTE ] I am a little concerned that seemingly everyone is on ASU (I have 3 units on them myself) - someone out there must be betting WSU or else we'd be seeing more line movement, I have to think. [/ QUOTE ] This is looking bad bad bad.
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#16
10-06-2007, 05:41 PM
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Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW Dr Bob is also on ASU this is lining up to be a disaster [/ QUOTE ] I am a little concerned that seemingly everyone is on ASU (I have 3 units on them myself) - someone out there must be betting WSU or else we'd be seeing more line movement, I have to think. [/ QUOTE ] This is looking bad bad bad. [/ QUOTE ] Held Washington to ~30 yards in the first 1 and a half quarters and still goes to half down 10-7. Lets see if I can lose 1 or 2 out of 8 today and still lose money.
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