Flop decision: what now??

[Khumalo]

Xanta, doesn't UTG's range (his 'chosen' 9% of hands to Pfr, whatever it may be) become more sharply defined after his flop behavior? Did he raise with random garbage (driven by whatever stray firings of his brain) and nail this flop? Or might he actually be picky about the tiny selection of hands he opts to raise pf, and tend to overplay them?

I just find it odd to conceive of a minute raising range that is constantly randomized, like the guy limp-calls everything but occasionally misclicks and ends up raising anything from AJs to 79dd.

Plus, as a side note, I wonder how much we can allow ourselves to make of his raise-sizing pf. I know that many types of droolers will size their pf raises as the mood strikes them, which accidentally benefits them by obscuring their range pf. But this particular fellow seems very passive and droolers such as he often have a very polarized range when they min-raise pf. E.g. {monster pairs, tiny pairs}. Obviously Pokey isn't providing sufficient info for the purposes of this excercise, but it's something I try to sort of factor in, when possible.

[z28dreams]

[ QUOTE ]
z28, pretty much a sweet post except for your UTG preflop range. A 51/9 is not positionally aware and half the time that they raise preflop it's just garbage. Just taking the top 9% of their hands is a mistake. That's what makes preflop such an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably correct. What's the "bottom edge" of a 9% preflop raise though? Something like KT? I think Pokey actually broke this down once before.

I just used pokerstove, and tried to pick the best 9% of hands - here's what I got as a range:

88-AA
AT-AKs
KQs/KQo = 9.2%
--------------
Here's what a 15% PFR might look like:
(same as above plus
All KJ, QJ, and JT combinations = 15.2%

Obviously, this doesn't mean that they won't occasionally raise hands like A9s or T9s, but it gives you an idea of roughly where the cutoff is.

[Lego05]

This is so much better for hero than I thought it was going to be. Not my best effort but I still think a pretty good representation of ranges. UTG is hand 1 and CO is hand 2:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,177,512 games 0.046 secs 25,598,086 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.229% 41.92% 03.31% 493648 38931.67 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 24.077% 23.08% 00.99% 271814 11699.67 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK-JJ, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, 33, AdQd }
Hand 2: 30.693% 27.86% 02.83% 328109 33309.67 { TT, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, KdQd, 9d8d, 8c7c, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c5c, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6c5c, 6h5h, 6s5s, 6c4c, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5s4s }



Even without JJ and QQ in UTG's range:

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.486% 35.96% 03.52% 240949 23616.67 { Td7d }
Hand 1: 25.653% 24.60% 01.05% 164821 7060.17 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, 33, KdQd }
Hand 2: 34.861% 31.90% 02.96% 213723 19856.17 { 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, KdQd, 9d8d, 8c7c, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c5c, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6c5c, 6h5h, 6s5s, 6c4c, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5s4s }


So it seems a clear call...clearer than I thought. This is assuming CO calls of course.



Though if he folds you're in great shape vs. UTG so stick it in.

[kolotoure]

I'm never folding here even tho UTG's passive and him jamming is kind of scary. I havent stoved it but I'm guessing if he only does this with 2 pair+ we have enough equity to get it in here (i think he is jamming much wider though). CO is kind of scary but not enough to get me to fold.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm never folding here even tho UTG's passive and him jamming is kind of scary.

[/ QUOTE ]


For 51/9 how passive is 1.7 really? It's not the same as it'd be for a 19/16 player.


BTW where were you, kolotoure? You used to post here and then I didn't see you for a while and now you're back. Didn't you play 50NL with like a near double digit (not counting decimals obv.) winrate...or am I thinking of somebody else?

[Lego05]

BTW, Pokey, you're just calling this cause you wanted to play with the UTG donk right? You'd usually just fold this without too much thought?

[NL Newbie]

Not even loading PS here, easy call.

Ill discuss the finer 'nit picky' details tommorow when i can explain without falling to sleep (7am here).

[Edukashun]

I call

I'd put UTG on an overpair here with those stats I'd expect him to limp small PPs and only raise JJ+ & AK PF. He hasn't got the AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so that just leaves JJ+.

CO is more worrying, if he's good his range PF will probably be wide like yours. I think his line leans towards sets but straights are possible to. Combo draws are unlikely in my opinion and the only suited [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hand we're behind is 23 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
However with all the $ in the pot this doesn't matter imo.
He call with all his sets and made straights. Let's say his range is 44-66,78o,78s,23o,23s if he calls, anything else he just folds and leaves some dead money to fatten up the pot.
We've got more than enough equity in the pot if he calls.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

701,631 games 0.030 secs 23,387,700 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.778% 42.06% 01.72% 295073 12084.50 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 03.893% 03.43% 00.47% 24047 3269.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 52.329% 50.61% 01.72% 355073 12084.50 { 66-44, 87s, 32s, 87o, 32o }


And If CO folds against UTG we're well ahead.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.390% 59.48% 00.91% 12366 189.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 39.610% 38.70% 00.91% 8046 189.00 { JJ+ }

[Edukashun]

After reading the other responses I missed some the other 2pair hands CO could call with, adding those we're in even better shape.

[corsakh]

This hand is boring. What would you do if you had Kd7d.