Early Week 3 NCAA discussion

[iggymcfly]

Figured I'd make a thread for this as it seemed to be helpful last week. This is basically for any discussion on where you think the opening numbers should be or which lines are likely to be off a little. Also, what time are we expecting bookmaker's lines to open? Will it be between the early and late NFL games like with Pinny last year?

Here's a link to next week's schedule:

[MyTurn2Raise]

my guess is bookmaker is first between 4:30 and 5:30 EST

[bills217]

Louisville @ Kentucky

Projecting Louisville -6, O/U 76

The total is gonna have to be something just ridiculous. Both teams have very good offenses and brutal defenses. Kentucky also had injuries along the defensive line against Kent State and could be comically thin there next week.

I can't see there being very many stops in this game on either side. Louisville's defense looked like complete air against MTSU, and frankly it's not a good sign that Murray moved the ball at all against their 1st team D. Kentucky's defense has been improved of late (hasn't allowed more than 20 points in their last 4 games), but still gives up a ton of yards and Louisville is one of if not the best offense in the country. Louisville is a passing team, but they should be even more able to gash UK with Anthony Allen on the ground, as UK's run D is more vulnerable than it's pass D. Kentucky showed yesterday that they can play an atrocious half and still score 56 against a decent Kent St. team. As someone who's seen basically every play of UK football for several years, I think UK didn't really show a lot against EKU and Kent St...the screen game and TE Jacob Tamme are critical parts of the offense that were utilized virtually none in the first two games.

Should be a real shootout. Any total below 70 is an easy over, prolly up to 73. I like Louisville at -3 or better, and Kentucky at 10 or better (for sure)...in between will require a bit more analysis.

Note: Against Kent St., UK was outgained 300-100 in the first half, only to promptly outgain Kent St. 380-150 in the 2nd half. Go figure.

[bills217]

Games I'm curious about:

ND @ Michigan? (UM -7?)
tOSU @ Washington (tOSU -3?)
Arkansas @ Alabama (Ark -3?)
USC @ Nebraska (???)

I think Florida should be about -7.5 against Tennessee, if not more.

Auburn -17 v. Miss. State
Vandy -7 v. Ole Miss

[NajdorfDefense]

LV -7.5
Mich -4, depends on Henne
OSU -3
USC -9.5??

some WAGs there.

[Austiger]

OMG get all over MSU +17. Offensive football will be set back decades in that game.

[bills217]

For clarity, the previous posts were my guesses at the lines - they haven't opened yet, although I'd be expecting them any minute at Bookmaker.

Interesting that you think 17 is too many for MSU/Auburn, at Auburn. Not a ringing endorsement of your Tigers!

[iggymcfly]

I'd expect Ala/Ark to open around PK and I'd be all over Bama at that price. They have a more complete football team than Arkansas, and their run defense is one of their strengths, so they should match up well too. At home, I like them at least to -3.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
LV -7.5
Mich -4, depends on Henne
OSU -3
USC -9.5??

some WAGs there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be able to get comfy with the Cats at 7.5. Though 10 would be nice.

[NajdorfDefense]

Miami v FIU -35? -31?

Buff at PSU -35?