400NL - Thin value shove against a shorty?

[willw9]

Villain runs like 31/12/1.7/2.6/3.2, no real history except he has seen me get my stack in preflop like 12 times with AK/KK against AA against 30/24 villians.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $906.30
BB: $192.50
Hero (UTG): $586.40
MP: $312.70
CO: $400.00
BTN: $753.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $10.00

Flop: ($30) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $23.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $78.00</font>

[willw9]

bump

[kura0]

i think without more reads (yours i cant really integrate much) i dont think you see 99 here often., maybe a sorta combo draw of which you might take outs with your TT, i think its a stove question

[hardkAre]

i probably fold this without any specifik reads

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain runs like 31/12/1.7/2.6/3.2, no real history except he has seen me get my stack in preflop like 12 times with AK/KK against AA against 30/24 villians.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $906.30
BB: $192.50
Hero (UTG): $586.40
MP: $312.70
CO: $400.00
BTN: $753.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $10.00

Flop: ($30) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $23.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $78.00</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

If you only have .15% hand equity if villain calls, then your push needs 26% fold equity to break even.

The more you think he folds, the more EV.
The wider his hand range for calling (giving you more hand equity when he calls), the more EV.

The reverse is also true. The less he folds, the more you lose.
And if his hand range is sufficiently narrower when calling to give you only 10% hand equity vs his range, then you need about 33% fold equity to break even.

========pct===equity===$win=====pct*equity*$win
fold====0.26====N/A ====140.4====36.504
call====0.74====0.15====240.9====26.7399
call====0.74====0.85===-100.5===-63.2145
sum of pct*equity*$win = EV= $0.0294

So, put him on a range of hands with which he'd check/raise. How much fold equity do you think you have vs that range? And are you 15%, 10%, better, or worse vs his calling range withing the group of hands with which he'd c/r?

I just don't know enough about this player or this level of 6-max play to give you a good range. My guess would be Qx, 88, 22, flush draws, particularly flush draws with a pair or an overcard (i.e. AXs or KXs), possibly a pair lower than Q that is testing your cb. If his range is that wide, then push is probably OK since many Qx hands will fold as will most of the flush draws, and your hand equity will be OK vs many of the flush draws that might call. On the other hand, if he only does this with Qx where x is a good or great kicker, sets, and AsKs/AsJs, so that you have very low fold equity, then maybe fold is best.

[DJ Sensei]

in position i think i prefer a call, then call or shove good turns, if you really want to get it in.

i dont think folding is all that bad though.

[schwza]

this is a nice analysis. is there a souped-up version of poker stove that does this kind of thing?

i personally would fold in this hand. if the stacks were shallower then i'd be a lot happier about getting the chips in.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a nice analysis. is there a souped-up version of poker stove that does this kind of thing?

i personally would fold in this hand. if the stacks were shallower then i'd be a lot happier about getting the chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used excel and guessing.

If you have pokerstove, then you can get more accurate equity figures vs a range of hands. I'm on a break at work, so I don't have pokerstove at the moment.

So, range of hands, pokerstove, and excel. I don't know of any fancier tools. A blank Excel spreadsheet is pretty good for running various "what if" scenarios as long as you have good equity numbers from pokerstove vs a good range of hands that you get from your "read" (experience, past history with player, position, preflop and post flop action, etc.).

[raze]

[ QUOTE ]
in position i think i prefer a call, then call or shove good turns

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost half the deck are scare cards... Aces, Kings, Jacks, and spades. Effective stacks are too shallow to call a $53 raise, and then fold for $100 more on the turn almost half the time. It's a bad, unprofitable spot, so just fold the flop.

[ipokeder]

getting it in here is SUCH a spew