StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-

[Pokey]

About a month ago, our beloved <font color="green">Matrix</font> posted a thread where he said:

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Welcome to StatMonkey.

All of us regular players keep ever growing PokerTracker Databases, we read and try to use all kinds of statistical info to help us beat the players we face across the poker table.

Lots of us spends hours staring at HUDstats where helpful little userdefined numbers are displayed over the names of our opponents.

This thread in SSNL is a discussion about "Optimal Stats" and what they might look like. Players at uNL play far from Optimal strategy, lots of villains seem to play far from any kind of strategy.

This will hopefully be a series of threads about finding ways to exploit players at a uNL table with different stats.


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Now, this idea is entirely too good to let it die after one post. So, with apologies to '<font color="green">Trixy</font>, I'm reviving it with opponent #2.

Our new target is entirely different from our old one: he's a nit.

Don't panic -- nits are beatable! Let's think this through. Pulling from my $25NL database, I found a good one.

After 653 hands datamined, we know the following information:

VPIP: 8.42%
PFR: 4.59%
VPIP from SB: 9.17%
Folded SB to steal: 95.0%
Folded BB to steal: 91.3%
Attempted to steal: 8.57%
Won $ WSF: 24.74%
Flop Aggression: 1.50
Turn Aggression: 2.25
River Aggression: 2.55
Average Aggression: 1.88
Went to SD: 17.53%
Won $ at SD: 64.71%

These nits quietly infect our tables all the time. How should we play against them? Lay out your entire plan: where you want to sit and why, how you plan to play preflop and why, how you plan to play postflop and why.

And, as <font color="green">Matrix</font> so eloquently put it:
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What weaknesses does &lt;this&gt; type of player have, and how can we exploit them?


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[Manchild84]

Aside from the general nittiness, one thing that sticks out is their W2SD is ridiculously low, and their W$SD is ridiculously high. I imagine this means we can push them off a better hand often enough to make well-placed bluffs +EV?

[jerryf1914]

i say you want him on your left so you can steal from him every orbit. thats guaranteed money

[danny8]

his pfr'ing range is somehtign like AJs+,AKo+, 99+ (thats what pokerstove says anyway [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

i'd love him on my left, he can be exploited by steali ghis blinds mercilessly! hes rarely if ever gonna play back at you without a v.strong hand.

because hes so tight hand reading becomes much easier since his range is so narrow. if hes betting/raising you can usually give him credit for a strong hand. he doesnt go to SD very often but when he does he wins often, so obv hes not calling your flop/turn/river bets lightly.

his Won $ WSF seems surprisingly low... im guessing he prolly just checks when he misses and bets when he hits, so a lot of pots can be taken off him when he shows weakness on the flop... maybe

[Heine]

Call in position, and bet when checked too on the flop.

[kflip]

IMO his main weakness is that he obviously leaves tons of money at the table by

1) folding too many profitable hands preflop
2) getting no action on the (big) hands he plays

by that we profit not only directly but also indirectly. What I mean with 'directly' is, that we can steal his blinds all day long. 'Indirectly' means, he's just not taking the money off of the fish at a fast enough rate, so we can do that instead.
If we get involved with him, we better hold a REALLY big hand.

This battle takes place preflop.

[Xanta]

I would love to have this player on my immediate left and steal his blind once or twice every orbit. Not only that, but he plays so few hands that he's never going to use his position as a weapon against you. Whenever he does enter a pot, I'll try to have hands with solid implied odds. Although his W$SD is high, players like these play so few hands that they tend to have trouble letting go of overpairs or TPTK hands even when it's obvious they're beat. So pocket pairs and suited connectors are money against them.

Postflop is all about making a hand &gt; one pair (as it's usually all nits have and it's very obvious when they don't, i.e. AK3 board and he's betting hard) and then valuebetting the crap out of him. His flop AF indicated that he doesn't like to cbet without the goods, so I would be a little less inclined to check/raise the flop and more inclined to lead out.

The biggest postflop weakness that this player has is actually rooted in his preflop play: His range is so narrow that hand reading and playing accordingly is incredibly easy. You can sacrifice a preflop equity edge all the time because your implied odds are sick. Don't go to war with one pair against this guy, it's suicide. Do play hands with good implied odds, when you hit it's money in the bank, unless he has whiffed overcards you're winning a stack.

Quite possibly the nicest thing about nits is that playing against them is such variance free profit. Blind steal to keep afloat and then hit him for a stack when you hit your set, 2 pair, whatever. Profit.

Interesting to figure out what his 3bet range is. Also, he probably limps small pps and AQ. and only raises TT+ AJs+, AK+. Usualy I steal the [censored] out of him.

[jk1986]

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Call in position, and bet when checked too on the flop.

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Winner! This guys obviously gonna let you steal his blinds constantly too, but post flop with an AF that low when compared with his nitty play preflop, he's only betting real strength, which will make him very easy to play against.

[KEW]

VS this nit I do not care whether he is on my right or left..He will be involved is so few pots he will not be a factor...

If he is on my left I will be stealing his blinds at NEARLY every opportunity...On my right I will not be 3 betting light ever BUT when he limps I will ISO raise him relentlessly...On left or right I will be betting whenever he checks and shutting down when he bets or raises..This villain weakness is his hand range is so narrow