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  #11  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:22 AM
Sluss Sluss is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

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It seems unlikely Jazil will bounce back well from the Kentucky Derby. Give me a reason why he hits the ticket or I will throw him out.


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I'm not real concerned with him not bouncing back. He bounced back at the Derby after a month off from the Wood and now is taking a month off before the Belmont. He did however, have a pretty good trip in the Derby and finished in a dead heat for fourth which could mean he is not up to this level.

The times when Jara has been on him he has closed really fast. Which in the longer Belmont seems like it could be an advantage (though most of my research and some responses in this thread have shown this not to be true).

If the track is wet he will definatly be part of some of my exotics just from how good he looked in the slop at the Wood.

I'm not real thrilled with the trainer trying to run him closer to the pace. He has not run very good races that way and seems to be more comfortable deep closing. Before the posts I really liked this horse now I'm wavering.
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  #12  
Old 06-08-2006, 02:39 PM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

The pace for this race will probably be 2 full seconds slower than in the Derby. That's ten lengths, so horses that were far back in the Derby will tend to be much closer to the early pace, without even being asked.

Generally the winner of the Belmont is a colt that can be on or fairly near the pace. Very deep closers don't do well as a rule.

In this rendition, at least half the field seems to prefer to be near the lead, however, and this may set things up a little better for the horses that come from 6-8 lengths back.

I like Steppenwolfer here. He worked very fast for this, and this race has been their target since his 2-ye old year.

We'll see Saturday, won't we?

bill c
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  #13  
Old 06-08-2006, 04:06 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
I'm taking the odds on BobNJohn, at these odds I'm betting him across the board, Sunriver is a solid second choice, I'll bet him Place at 4-1 or better odds, I'll put Steppenwolfer to Show again like I did in the Derby. Ditto for Jazil.

Then I'll put a small trifecta box on Sun/Cat/Steppen.
Superfecta - Sun/Cat + Steppen/Jazil at the back and ditto Sun/Bob + Steppen/Jazil.

Let's hope none of them break a leg this race.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Laying off BobNJohn now that the odds have dropped. See where they are in two days.

Naj
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  #14  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:22 PM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

Tomlinson turf numbers are nice, though I personally believe the wet numbers lag far behind the turf numbers, and the distance numbers are nearly useless.

And none of the numbers should ever be used to eliminate horses. Time and again, you will see superb grass horses with mediocre (or worse) turf numbers. The way numbers should be used is as an inclination in the direction the number suggests. To use turf numbers, as an example, I will only use them if it's the horse's first or second try on the grass, and only if I am getting 8/1 or more. I greatly prefer that there be only one set of top tomlinson numbers, say above 300, and also that there are no horses in the race that have established good turf form.

An application I just love is this: a maiden has poor dirt form, and has been running in maiden claiming races, and looking horrible; in fact the worse, the better! He now goes back to MSW and onto the turf for the first time and has a Tomlinson turf number of 300 or more. He MAY be just now getting to run on the surface he will love. He also may not run a jump, which is why you want good odds when you use these numbers.

The only thing I do resembling elimination is this: if the sire is a well known turf sire, (Cozzene, etc) and the horse has top turf numbers but has run at least twice on the grass with poor form, I will generally toss these, as if they were going to be good, they'd have shown something by now. And people will still be betting on the famous turf sire.

Frankly, I see no profitable way to use Tomlinson numbers on the Belmont Stakes.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c
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  #15  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:24 PM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
I found Sunriver last night at +600 and took that. still scalpable w/pin at +500 too. if BnJ goes higher than 7-1 I might consider that too.

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This is a good bet IMO. He's in there with a big shot and will go off shorter than 6/1. I rate him as better than Bluegrass Cat, FWIW.

bill c
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  #16  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:25 PM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

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Today is Wednesday. How in the world are you thinking about a race on Saturday. It's just another betting race.
Remember, all horses have the same names in every race and you can put it all in perspective....1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 etc.
Worry about todays races.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an extremely ignorant statement, obviously made by someone who doesn't know which end of the horse eats.

bill c
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  #17  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:28 PM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems unlikely Jazil will bounce back well from the Kentucky Derby. Give me a reason why he hits the ticket or I will throw him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? He has worked well for this and is in a good barn. I give him a big shot here, FWIW.

bill c
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  #18  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:48 PM
TripleH68 TripleH68 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems unlikely Jazil will bounce back well from the Kentucky Derby. Give me a reason why he hits the ticket or I will throw him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? He has worked well for this and is in a good barn. I give him a big shot here, FWIW.

bill c

[/ QUOTE ]

More of a gut feeling than anything. Jazil has yet to run a triple digit number. He looks to me like a horse that has peaked. His run in the Wood was essentially a perfect trip in the slop from waaaay back. In the FOY he stayed pretty close to a soft pace and was not competitive. He looked empty at the end of the Derby. A few of the throwouts could cause traffic problems for him. I will give the little guy a third place finish at best.

I also think Steppenwolfer is better than Jazil and it seems doubtful both hit the ticket.

But as they say in Let It Ride, "you never know."
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  #19  
Old 06-09-2006, 04:21 AM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
Tomlinson turf numbers are nice, though I personally believe the wet numbers lag far behind the turf numbers, and the distance numbers are nearly useless.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that the distance numbers are near useless, they are very useful in select situations and especially important on Belmont day. Name one Belmont bomb that didn't have a huge Tomlinson. Look at Birdstone's PP, is there anything other than his Tomlinson that suggests that he can will that race? They have some significance in seven furlong races as well as longer turf races and don't get me started on mainden races. Are you seriouosly saying then when capping a maiden race anything other the distance Tomlinson is the most important factor? If anything turf figures are the least useful, they pretty much only factor in on the first dirt to turf race, after a horse has a race on the turf, that race provides more info than the Tomlinson.
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  #20  
Old 06-09-2006, 08:11 AM
TripleH68 TripleH68 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

Calling experienced horse players...

I am intrigued by the pick-4. In that it could provide a huge payoff again. My question is do you think Too Much Bling is a single in the Woody Stephens at 7 furlongs? His speed to the 1/2 looks devastating and Garret Gomez is 3-for-3 on board. It also fun to watch grey horses win. And Baffert sounds confident.

The only horse that scares be a bit in the final furlong is Keyed Entry, mostly because of Pletcher. Again I just think much of this field will be so far behind by the half they will have no chance.

I would like to single this race and go very deep in the other three hoping for bombers...
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