NL25: AA in position against a push on the flop

[RichAM]

Waaaaaaaaaaaay to many scared people around these forums right now. I post hands that I win just to get peoples perspective of the hand. Just b/c someone posts a hand doesn't mean it was beaten. That's what's wrong with this forum right now. You come into someones thread already persuaded that he has lost the hand. This is why we don't post results. If your going to help on a hand, dont come into someones thread already scared that he lost it and then find a place for him to fold.

Now, onto the hand. Like a couple people have said, I don't see a set playing like this. If you got unlucky with him hitting 2 pair then so be it. I dont see a fold here. Easy call IMO.

[skates]

[ QUOTE ]
Waaaaaaaaaaaay to many scared people around these forums right now. I post hands that I win just to get peoples perspective of the hand. Just b/c someone posts a hand doesn't mean it was beaten. That's what's wrong with this forum right now. You come into someones thread already persuaded that he has lost the hand. This is why we don't post results. If your going to help on a hand, dont come into someones thread already scared that he lost it and then find a place for him to fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, and I practically just started posting here.

[Kasane]

This is a really easy fold. When a nit tells you he has you, believe him.

Sure, sometimes... sometimes he's saying he has AQ and he's just saying "eff it, I'm all in" because he's a nit that sucks. And sometimes it's JT or T8... but it just isn't often enough one of those hands. We're better than a flip, sure, in those cases, but we're not even dominating. Then there's the case when he has a set... then we're dominated.

The board is dry as hell, there's not enough draws to put in his range to make this a call. To believe a nit bet/pushes air or a draw 200BB deep is... is spew.

Now, I'm tempted to believe he's not quite a nit from OP's description "calls a lot".. maybe more laggy that's been missing flops.

I'm going to go stove this... back in a couple if I come up with anything interesting.

[Bantam222]

im not a fan of going all in w/ one pair for 200BB..

[Kasane]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10,890 games 0.050 secs 217,800 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.914% 25.91% 00.00% 2822 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 74.086% 74.09% 00.00% 8068 0.00 { QcQd, QcQh, 99, 77, AhQh, AsQs, JhTh, JsTs }

Okay, now this range for villain has a few caveats. QQ is discounted to two combos because it's pretty unlikely. One might be better (more equity for us). JT I've given two combos to discount for how unlikely I think that is. I've not added KK in. Debatable...

If anyone thinks that the times he pushes with air might get us up another 20%... I'd like to borrow your rose colored glasses for the next time I get a letter from the IRS.

And as to the unlikely chance we're up against 2 pair... Well, we're behind 2pair enough to make calling foolish, so we can see that that wouldn't help our equity.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about the sets, but decided if anything he had super garbage like Q7. Q7 is actually the most probable I think, in which case I has many backdoor outs to the nuts. [censored] it, I am going all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, you do know how incredibly bad this is, right?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,930 games 0.005 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.455% 25.45% 00.00% 1764 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 74.545% 74.55% 00.00% 5166 0.00 { Q7o }

[Brian O'Nolan]

Pretty easy fold. If the flop was QJ7 FD or something you could consider calling, but there aren't even that many big draws out there here. Like 1/15 times he has AQ or KK but you're almost always drawing pretty slim here. B/3BAI has you smoked on this flop.

[Lego05]

Ummmm....the flop looks like a very standard fold to me.

BTW i woulda just called his pot size bet on flop.

[orange]

not a tremendous fan of the flop raise unless you intend on getting it in this deep.