NL100 | River Decision w Trips

Grunch · #1 05-23-2007, 12:45 AM

Nasty board, but...

You may not like PF, and I might not be crazy about it either. Can we just ignore that for now?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Grunch (SB): $104.60
BB: $69.95
UTG: $128.20
MP: $104.75
CO: $124.85
BTN: $122.70

Preflop: Grunch is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, 3 folds, Grunch raises to $4.50, BB folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Grunch bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50

Turn: ($25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Grunch bets $16.00, UTG calls $16.00

River: ($57) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Grunch ... ?

Bet/Call?
Bet/Fold?
Check/Call?
Check/Fold?

I was having a hard time giving him either AJ (would have raised either the flop or turn) or 2 hearts (runner-runner, what are the odds).

My read so far is that if I check he will represent the Hearts somewhat often even if he doesn't have it. Question is how often am I ahead here?

hippitro · #2 05-23-2007, 12:48 AM

Bet half pot and fold to a rr, imho.

Fonkey123 · #3 05-23-2007, 12:52 AM

40/call. He'll never be bluffing here, but there a hands he might think he's value-pushing, you're ahead of.

edit and you'll also be getting like 6:1

early325 · #4 05-23-2007, 12:57 AM

I bet 35, fold.

I think any 2-pair hand would have already put in a raise.

PBJaxx · #5 05-23-2007, 01:15 AM

Meh, this is close without reads. Any reads?

I probably bet 40, but I don't know if I can fold to a shove getting like 5:1. The more I type, the more I realize I need some kind of read.

Against unknown, I probably bet/call, but I don't like the call. If this is recent, this may be the famous AK taylor caby line that he suggested for deception.

Reasoning: This looks like a bare jack or a bare king. It is probably more likely that he calls with a king than it is likely that he will bluff with a missed jack if checked to. If we always call a shove when we are losing, it might be enough to push this to c/c. Like I said, its close.

cbloom · #6 05-23-2007, 01:29 AM

Dude, preflop is so bad, I can't ignore it. If you were on the button fine, but the SB !?

I don't see why anyone is suggesting a fold anywhere. Villain limped preflop and looks very weak here. Villain could have just a jack. The way I'm running I would check-call cuz I want to show this hand down. I dunno an optimal line might be higher variance, maybe CRAI.

early325 · #7 05-23-2007, 01:30 AM

Yeah the more I loook at the hand, folded doesn't seem to be a very good option.

ajmargarine · #8 05-23-2007, 01:34 AM

Preflop is kinda ugly.

River, I ain't folding. crai looks kinda sexxy, but given his passiveness in the hand, he may continue in that vein and try to get to showdown. Bet $33, call a rz.

FishSticks · #9 05-23-2007, 01:39 AM

I don't like a river check. Even though your read is that he'd try to rep hearts, it is backdoor so he might be less prone to rep than had like a 9 peeled. More importantly, his line looks like he just wants to show his hand down, and he'll check behind with stuff like KJ way too often.

So, bet the river - if you get raised you're beat, but no one ever folds getting 300:1 or whatever to call the push.

lapoker17 · #10 05-23-2007, 05:32 AM

bet 45. bet more on turn too.