Small River Decision v Robert Mizrachi

[Foucault]

Last level of Day 2A. Blinds are 1200/2400/300. I showed up at the table about two orbits ago with 330,000 chips, enough to cover everyone. Mizrachi is on my immediate right with about 150,000, which I think is like average. I haven't been at the table long enough to establish a strong image, but I probably look aggressive, I've already 3-bet Mizrachi from the button and open raised 2-3 times.

Folds to RM in the SB, he completes, I raise 5000 more with 44, he calls.

Flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. 12,700 in the pot. He checks, I bet 8000, he calls very quickly.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. We both check.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He bets 12,000 into a pot of 28,700.

The interesting thing is that at the time, I didn't know this was Mizrachi, so I'm curious to know who calls this bet from an unknown and who calls from Mizrachi. It's a small decision, I know, but the difference in reasoning is important, I think.

[Cornell Fiji]

Lots of draws on the flop.
I call the river.

I am less likely to call against a pro because you probably have the image of a competent/aggro player who would realize that you should call light because of the draws on the flop. I probably fold vs. a pro... or maybe bluff raise to 35,000? (note: I probably wouldn't have the balls to pull off a buff raise because you aren't representing much other than A2/QQ because it would be somewhat strange to slowplay a set on the turn, but it is a sexy play if you put him on a 6/9/Q which I believe make up a HUGE part of his range)

[8Adam8]

I am sooooo tempted to raise

This bet is usually a medium strength hand. I do not think he is sophisticated enough to understand a "fake blocking bet" and use it to induce a bluff-raise.

I am having trouble thinking of a hand he could have that would call a raise.

I think calling is ok vs his range, but its pretty marginal EV-wise.

[Requin]

I think this is an easy fold.

[Mr.Poker]

I think im in the push or fold camp. Calling is meh, as i suspect he has a mid pair on this board, probably something like 89/910.

I like raising to 36k, something which looks like you want a call, rather than a overbetting which could obv be a missed draw.

I know it effectively turns your hand into a bluff, but I can't see someone betting so small relative to the pot with a missed draw, it looks way more like a blocking bet from a mid pair, so in reality I dont think there is much value to calling.

[Requin]

A hand that can raise river will usually bet the turn.

[registrar]

I don't know how he plays but I think I'd fold here to anyone I thought was good. He's expecting you to call and he can beat at least ace high which means he can almost certainly beat 44. Obviously, I could be way off but that's the way I see it. In my second WSOP ME, I'd consider a raise.

Nice run chief. GL.

[T_Mac]

I think Mr.Poker nailed it and I'd probably fold.

[Foucault]

Agreed that knowing it's Mizrachi makes it a fold because he's capable of betting medium-strength hands for value here. Not knowing it was him, however, I called, because random unknown WSOP players have very polarized river ranged. I felt to bet the river for value a lot of unknowns would need at least a Q (unlikely since that didn't come until turn) or a deuce (which is usually folded to my preflop raise), and thus that I'd see a bluff here maybe a third of the time. Thoughts?

[registrar]

TBH, last hands of the day against the table big stack OOP, I'd expect a random/bad villain with a reasonable stack not to bluff that often and to bet more on a bluff when it does take his fancy.