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#1
07-02-2007, 12:28 PM
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55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
From article in 2+2 magazine
How would you play this to the raise and what is your plan? [ QUOTE ] As we approached the money bubble, I found myself in a similar situation. The prize money for even the lowest pay-outs was $15,000, which would have been a tremendous boon to my bankroll. At the same time, however, I promised myself before I even began playing satellites to the main event that if I played, I was going to play to win, even if that meant an increased risk of winning nothing at all. The chip leader at the table was very aggressive and throughout the day had shown a willingness to put people to decisions for all of their chips. He definitely had a good understanding of bubble dynamics and had been picking on some of the more scared players at our table. Prior to the bubble, I had played back at him a few times, so he knew that I knew what he was up to. I had about 42,000 chips at the 400/800 level, whereas he had well over 200,000. From middle position, he made his standard raise to 2500. The big blind was rather weak, and I felt the chip leader could raise him with a very wide range. I, in the small blind, had a pair of 5's. I contemplated a reraise, but felt my opponent was very capable of four-betting a wide enough range that I would actually have a difficult decision with my measly pocket pair. I then considered calling and playing for set value, as I had done earlier with the T's, but this time it was likely to be a heads up pot against an opponent who had not shown very much strength so far. Thus, I was going to be bluffed off of the best hand often but not necessarily win a big pot if I did hit a set. Ultimately, I elected to fold, as I could not devise a profitable way to play what was likely to be the best hand. The important thing here is that I folded pre-flop; giving up in equity what was at most a fraction of the antes and my opponent's raise. I did not 3-bet and then reluctantly fold what may have been the best hand in a much larger pot, and I did not call planning to check-fold the 85% of flops that did not contain a 5, which would have cost me a large fraction of my bet. I did my best to avoid the rough spot altogether. It is also important to note that with a larger pair, say pocket 9's, I would have played more aggressively and been willing to take the increased risk of elimination on the money bubble. With a better pair, folding pre-flop is simply sacrificing too much. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#2
07-02-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
I think this is a terrible fold. There is 400 + 800 + 2500 and i think 1000 in antes ( i know 300/600 is 75 ante at world series). So there's around 4700 in the pot, and we only have to call 2100. Plus we have 40k behind. I'm pretty sure we can set mine profitably here 50bbs deep. Also, there are a few flops like 234, 346, etc that we can continue on.
With maybe 20 or 25k+, this is def a call. 20k or less I think shoving is best.
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#3
07-02-2007, 01:56 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
How close is it to the bubble? Are we on the bubble with just one away from a 1.5 buyin boost in prize? If so then it looks like a fold. The only way that I can see playing this hand is if the guy is fairly tight then maybe 3 betting it preflop if we think that we can take the pot down without seeing a flop a reasonable amount of the time. Calling sucks since we aren't getting odds to set mine since we rarely double up when we hit, and trying to play OOP against an aggressive big stack on the bubble with a small pair is extremely difficult and probably dumb. It's kind of frustrating getting bullied by the big stack but unless he's tight enough to fold to a little bit of action you can't really get involved here.
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#4
07-02-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
[ QUOTE ]
How close is it to the bubble? Are we on the bubble with just one away from a 1.5 buyin boost in prize? If so then it looks like a fold. The only way that I can see playing this hand is if the guy is fairly tight then maybe 3 betting it preflop if we think that we can take the pot down without seeing a flop a reasonable amount of the time. Calling sucks since we aren't getting odds to set mine since we rarely double up when we hit, and trying to play OOP against an aggressive big stack on the bubble with a small pair is extremely difficult and probably dumb. It's kind of frustrating getting bullied by the big stack but unless he's tight enough to fold to a little bit of action you can't really get involved here. [/ QUOTE ] What does how close to the bubble we are have to do with anything? We are trying to maximize our ev. There's no way folding maximizes ev. How do we not have odds to play for set value 50bbs deep with antes? We hit our set 1 every 8.5 times, so on average we need to win 17850 to break even. There's already 4700 in the pot (give or take a few if ante is not 100), so we really only need to average 13150 when we hit our set. And then sometimes we will definitely be able to double up when villain has something as strong as a big over pair or 2 pair. Of course we could get set over setted, but that's so unlikely that there's no point in worrying about it. I do not think that averaging at least 13150 is unreasonable. Given villain's description, i think we can count on a continuation bet of 3-4k practically every time at the bare minimum. We will definitely get at least 9-10k fairly often when he either tries to 2 barrel us or if he gets a decent piece of the board. Furthermore, there are a few other favorable all-low flops that we can continue on, especially ones that give us a straight draw like 346 and 234. Plus, calling the 2100 does not harm our stack at all. Say we had 20k or less here. Now we wouldn't be able to profitably set mine, but folding would still be bad here in my opinion. We are way ahead of villain's range based on his description, so I would just shove in this case. I can't do any math/equity calculations now, but I'm pretty sure the push would be +ev.
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#6
07-02-2007, 03:08 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
[ QUOTE ]
What does how close to the bubble we are have to do with anything? We are trying to maximize our ev. There's no way folding maximizes ev. [/ QUOTE ] Chip EV or Cash EV? There's a difference.
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#7
07-02-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What does how close to the bubble we are have to do with anything? We are trying to maximize our ev. There's no way folding maximizes ev. [/ QUOTE ] Chip EV or Cash EV? There's a difference. [/ QUOTE ] At this point in the tourney there really isn't much difference yet.
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#8
07-02-2007, 04:03 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What does how close to the bubble we are have to do with anything? We are trying to maximize our ev. There's no way folding maximizes ev. [/ QUOTE ] Chip EV or Cash EV? There's a difference. [/ QUOTE ] At this point in the tourney there really isn't much difference yet. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true at all - notice how in the OP it's clearly stated that he cares about the money (although he's willing to risk going out on the bubble, he still obviously cares). I agree that you're deep enough to set mine/play the flop though. Reraising seems pretty horrid since you puke to a 4-bet.
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#9
07-02-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
I think this is a call whatever the situation, even if we only continue when we flop a set and check fold every other flop.
If you fold here, you shouldn't be playing the event in the first place. Whats more, is that if Villian is willing to put players to the test for all their chips, the chances that we get paid off when we do hit seem far greater. NEVER fold here.
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#10
07-02-2007, 04:46 PM
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Re: 55 versus raise from aggressive big stack on WSOP bubble
The bubble in these WSOP is huge. It's not like normal online bubbles. It really matters a lot to make the money, at least EV wise. That's all I'm chiming in with, probably all you guys realize this anyway. (Oh I just realized they are talking about last year's main event)
But alright I think calling is ok, especially because if we play strangely/weakly after the flop if we hit our set, theres a decent chance we can get our opponent to go nuts against us. For instance check call a K85 flop but really spend a lot of time mulling it over. Our opponent will often think we are scared of busting on the bubble and will be more likely to fire again with his gigantic stack, because most people don't trap on the bubble.
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