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#11
08-07-2007, 12:55 AM
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Re: Are you ever stupified by the thought processes of some players?
[ QUOTE ]
By calling here you also set yourself up to lose more money on 5th and 6th to make your draw [/ QUOTE ] True of regular draws but not of backdoors. If he doesn't improve on fifth, his hand is trash, so he doesn't have to pay fifth and sixth to chase. If he improves at all, he has good odds to see the river because the pot is so huge. He got approximately his worst possible improving situation on fifth street and is still getting odds there. Plus it's unusual to be against a good full house redraw against those boards, so his situation in general will be even less marginal. 
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#12
08-07-2007, 01:57 AM
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Re: Are you ever stupified by the thought processes of some players?
We are talking about two different things, but I think my interpretation is more correct.
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] By calling here you also set yourself up to lose more money on 5th and 6th to make your draw [/ QUOTE ] True of regular draws but not of backdoors. If he doesn't improve on fifth, his hand is trash, so he doesn't have to pay fifth and sixth to chase. If he improves at all, he has good odds to see the river because the pot is so huge. He got approximately his worst possible improving situation on fifth street and is still getting odds there. Plus it's unusual to be against a good full house redraw against those boards, so his situation in general will be even less marginal. [/ QUOTE ] Your argument is that the call on 6th will be correct because he is getting the odds to call. I agree. My argument is that the call on 6th will cost him more money , relative to folding on 5th, because he has to put more money when he does not have his share of pot equity. This is also true. I suppose calling a bet on 5th with a 4 flush would be basically free since you would have pot equity. The bet on 6th would still cost though, unless you hit the draw.
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#13
08-07-2007, 08:30 AM
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Re: Are you ever stupified by the thought processes of some players?
[ QUOTE ]
My argument is that the call on 6th will cost him more money , relative to folding on 5th, because he has to put more money when he does not have his share of pot equity. This is also true. [/ QUOTE ] Folding on fifth costs him .26 big bets if we assume neither of the dead money players overcalls. He'll be getting 11.5:1 on sixth, so to lose .26 big bets there he'd have to have less than 6% equity. There will be 32 unseen cards at that point, so two outs is just enough. And he'll pick up a second draw like he did here a lot of the time as well.
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