Fold getting correct odds?

footnbaseball · #1 07-29-2006, 08:48 PM

We just made the final table of a 45 person sng, so no reads.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t6560)
UTG+1 (t6357)
MP1 (t8235)
MP2 (t7340)
MP3 (t11595)
Hero (t7310)
Button (t5889)
SB (t8029)
BB (t6185)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to t1800, Button folds, SB calls t1500, BB folds

Flop: (t4650) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t6179 (All-in)

Now I'm getting 1.8 to 1 odds on my call here, which are the odds of hitting my flush. That makes this a break even call. BUT, since we are on the bubble (9 left 7 get paid), should I be folding this since it is break even in the long run, so that I can decrease variance for this specific tournament?

Bakes · #2 07-29-2006, 08:56 PM

Stop this talk of reducing variance for a specific tourney. If you can't afford the variance, you are underrolled.

I make this call with a likely 12 outs and a chance to become the chip leader.

footnbaseball · #3 07-29-2006, 08:58 PM

Ahright just checking. I thought this was the right call, but a few people have told me otherwise.

It felt like I was taking CRAZY PILLS

argybargy2002 · #4 07-29-2006, 09:47 PM

in a single table sit and go you would be correct in folding but given the topheavy payments in mtt's you should be aiming to do more than just squeak into the money.

0evg0 · #5 07-29-2006, 10:06 PM

Push preflop.

AtlasRaised · #6 07-29-2006, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's my play here as well. M of just over 5. push or fold. standard raise with your stack frequently gets you in tough decisions like this.

zoobird · #7 07-30-2006, 06:47 AM

This isn't a real MTT...its a 45 person sng, which pays out more like a STT. That said...its still a call because of the likely 3 extra outs from the A.

bambam16 · #8 07-30-2006, 01:20 PM

Yeah this is looking like a 99 or TT that just wants to take down the pot, I call.

footnbaseball · #9 07-30-2006, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah this is looking like a 99 or TT that just wants to take down the pot, I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ actually. good read.