Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th

[Praxising]

Comments on the last two streets?

Razz ($0.50/$1.00), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.60 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.30 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.30 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

River - (12.30 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (14.30 BB)

[tinkerman]

Seems correct to me, keep raising on 6th as you are favourite to win.

A check call is correct on 7th as he could be betting with a made 9 though some will argue you should bet out on 7th, I think check call makes the most. Also, this guy could easily raise if you bet if he makes his hand *which I've seen at these limits)

[Sp00n]

My instinct is to bet, but in this situation it is very easy to calculate to correct play.

Calculating villains range:

Worst case A3J962x:
Outs: 444555777(Total 9)

Best case 38J962x
Outs: A444555(Total 7)

As a rough guess we think villain has 8 outs here, there are 37 cards remaining in the deck. This means villain will improve to a hand that beats ours 21.6% of the time, the remaining times we win.
If villain raises our 7th street bet when he improves to a 7 or better and we call every time we stand to lose 2 bets 21.6% of the time
If villain calls our 7th street bet unimproved every time, we can expect to win 1 bet 78.4%.

So our EV if we bet is 1*0.784 - 2*0.216 = 0.352BB
This does not include villains bluff raising frequency or our frequency for folding to villains raise.

It is more difficult to calculate our EV if we c/c because we need to know bluffing frequencies.

Any questions let me know.

[Sp00n]

Made a mistake: Villain can not make an 8 better then Hero's 58. Probably does not make a lot of difference anyway. The logic behind the post is still correct.

[RustyBrooks]

I agree with spoon's analysis but only if he calls every time (I think he will). Check-calling can make more money though if his bluffing frequency is high enough. Specifically you make 1bb every time you check and he bluffs and you lose 1bb every time you check and he bets a hand that beats you. So 21% of the time you lose 1bb, B% of the time you win 1bb. EV = B - .2 so check-calling is a better move if B > 55%. Although I think 50% might be an accurate estimation based on this guys play on 6th street, it's probably never higher than that and often it's lower, so I think bet-call is still better. I'm not going to do the calculation for bet-fold but for some opponents that's the money maker.

[Sp00n]

I don't think villain will bluff-bet or bluff-raise very often because he has show-down value here. However, if his board something like xxJ36Jx it is more likely he will.

[RustyBrooks]

The question is how dumb the villain is. 6th st makes me think he doesn't understand razz very well, unless he just doesn't believe that prax has an 8. Anyway, not everybody knows that you shouldn't bluff hands that have showdown value.

If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/folding seventh here is like setting the appropriate amount of money on fire

[Praxising]

This is what I think happened. I had just gotten on this table and never seen Seat 5 before. We've already discussed how they play at .50/1 - so many, almost all, will play two small cards with any brick. Since he didn't know me, he didn't know I don't play hidden bricks. I think he assumed I made a 98 here, when he made a 96. So he raised.

6th Street - (6.30 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

I think my reraise made him understand I had made my 8 on 5th, but he wasn't letting go. What he made me believe with the raise and call is that he had a good 6 draw.

River - (12.30 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets

I thought if he did not improve he would have checked it down and only would bet if he improved. He might bluff, of course, but I was calling in any case, obviously. Not that it matters, but he made a 6 on the river.

Thanks for the comments and all the work calculating math; I think I probably played it as well as I could. I often wonder when I lose a big pot if I screwed up in some way I couldn't see.

[Andy B]

I don't know why you need comments on sixth. You have a board lock and a super draw. Get your money in there. I'd definitely bet the river. He's going to look you up with a worse hand, and he's unlikely to raise.