Slightly -cEV move to become chip leader. $4 + .40 180sng stars

[b-komplex]

Umm why would we knowingly make -cEV plays in a $4/180 again?

I guess if I misclicked my way into the flop situation I would call if already in the money due to the flat payout from 10-18. Big stack pwning factor in small stakes tournies is pretty close to zero.

[Sherman]

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(unless you are talking about the first time around)


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Yes I mean the first time around... it's obvious that the big stack who is already in this pot is NOT going away, and by making this play, hero is thinking in his head "I better hit a straight" which is the same thought process the other 4/180 donks go through when they get any two sooted cards and hope to hit a flush... -EV all around.

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No. There Hero is trying to steal. He is trying to get the big stack (limper) to fold PF or to fold to a c-bet on the flop where hero will have position. It is certainly a defensible play. Although I woudl raise more PF if I was going to try it.

The other big stack at the table foiled his plans b/c he picked up a big hand and min-raised. The original bigstack (limper) then folded.

And Hero was getting the odds to call PF. Other than making a smallish raise, I don't see much wrong with Hero's PF play. You could argue that his stack size doesn't work well for the play he is trying to make. And that is fine. But I don't fault his thought process for trying to steal...how could anyone who wasn't at the table?

Sherman

[Sherman]

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Umm why would we knowingly make -cEV plays in a $4/180 again?

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Because it might be +$EV. Are my posts even visible to anyone? If not, Mods please make my posts visible.

I'm not saying Hero is correct to make a -cEV play here, I am just saying that it might be and simply dismissing it as wrong is surely a mistake.

Like I said before. Hero needs to do some simple estimation and math to determine if this play is +$EV.

1) Determine your $EV if you win the pot in this spot. Multiply that number by your equity in this pot (.30-.36).

2) Estimate your current $EV ($EV if you folded).

3) Subtract 2 from 1. If the number is positive, you should make the play.

What makes this hand interesting is that even though the math is out there, no one really knows what these estimates are. My point is that saying, "this is -cEV, this is stupid." is just wrong. Tournaments aren't about winning chips. They are about winning money. Sometimes cEV = $EV. Sometimes it doesn't.

Until someone can come up with accurate estimates to 1 and 2, you CANNOT have an answer to OP's question and be 100% sure it is accurate. Numbers 1 and 2 is where the debate on this hand should begin.

Sherman

[b-komplex]

By stack sizes I assume 30-40 left or so eh. Sure there are cEV/$EV distortions in tournaments but not at that point.

Preflop is fricking horrible; steal that gives everyone odds to call. Then smooth of the 3bet OOP when your hand is basically 65o sucks; It is not going to be profitable 20 BB deep. There are maths out there I think it was around 15-1 implied to call with UCs. Flop plan is to check/call AI so basically now AK commits and is delighted to realize they are ahead.

So in conclusion I am comfortable dismissing this play as -cEV/-$EV/stinking awful without seeing any more fancy-pants maths tyvm mkay

[Sherman]

Komplex,

You are cleary not reading the posts in this thread. In the OP, he tells us there are around 30 left. That means the bubble is coming soon.

Having big stack on the bubble is obv. more EV than having a medium stack on the bubble.

PF is not horrible with the exception of the raise size. He has to call the bet. Even if villain turns over AA he has to call the bet. His pot odds alonge are almost good enough to call. Plus implied odds, and the PF call is trivially easy.

I don't get it. Why don't we spend time thinking about the important questions to answer in this thread instead of ignoring them by saying, "PF bad, calling is -cEV so fold."? Why?

Sherman

[Rocco]

I agree with Sherman... The raise size is horrible, but Hero has to call the extra 700. Also, the raise in itself is of course viable since Hero said opponents were limp-folding a lot. I think I'd rather save my chips for some re-stealing from the blinds, but raising here is certainly not bad.

On the flop, I call (shove) for all the reasons Sherman stated. Having a stack to abuse the bubble with is very +EV, especially in tournaments were opponents let themselves be abused without resistance.

[JammyDodga]

OK I see where you are coming from sherman but in this particular case the move is both -$EV and -cEV.

You can't ignore the terrible pre-flop play, because this shows that the OP isn't very good, so the utility of a big stack goes way down. In fact, if he's making bad "steal" plays like this with his stack, I'd say if he gets a big stack he's going to piss it all away pretty quickly trying to bully.

Secondly, I think you need to fold to the re-raise pre-flop. If were all in, we'd have the odds to call, but the chance of flopping a hand good enough to continue with is about 1 in 20, and we dont have the implied odds for that, not even close. So even if we "outplay" the other guy on the flop - which is extremely difficult with his tight range, we have a lot of equity to make up.

So yeah, I think its just bad on every street.

[shaundeeb]

really bad hand/tourney selection for the topic but whatever If you play this hand to this flop open shove it at least too shallow to c/shove over any decent cbet

[bata2]

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Umm why would we knowingly make -cEV plays in a $4/180 again?

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Because it might be +$EV. Are my posts even visible to anyone? If not, Mods please make my posts visible.

I'm not saying Hero is correct to make a -cEV play here, I am just saying that it might be and simply dismissing it as wrong is surely a mistake.

Like I said before. Hero needs to do some simple estimation and math to determine if this play is +$EV.

1) Determine your $EV if you win the pot in this spot. Multiply that number by your equity in this pot (.30-.36).

2) Estimate your current $EV ($EV if you folded).

3) Subtract 2 from 1. If the number is positive, you should make the play.

Sometimes cEV = $EV. Sometimes it doesn't.

Sherman

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I understand you point, but i disagree with the timing.

This is a 4/180 regular tournament. Hero is got 20+BB. He will have more than 10BBs in next 2 blind levels - thats about 30 minutes of hands... huge number.

I play really lots $12/180 turbos. By the time it reaches bubble blinds are about ~1200, with average stacks of 13500. They have learned me the value of even 2BB stacks. In this exact spot in turbos, blinds will rise in 10 minutes making you shortstacked.

With that kind of pressure to get a good hand and double up, we can discuss making this kind of moves. Right here it's too early. But what worries me the most is the really unfavorable success percentage for this move.

[bata2]

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really bad hand/tourney selection for the topic but whatever If you play this hand to this flop open shove it at least too shallow to c/shove over any decent cbet

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