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#1
03-31-2007, 09:52 PM
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Re: props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily: White Sox under (insert number) W Diamondbacks over 78.5 W Dodgers under 88.5 W Blue Jays under 87.5 W [/ QUOTE ] crockpot, thanks very much for this work, it looks awesome! what odds do you like these props down to? 5dimes has kept their opening numbers, but shifted the odds. they look like this: Dbacks - over 78.5 -125 ChiSox - under 88.5 -180 LAD - under 88.5 -140 BJays - under 87 -130 any you still like there? [/ QUOTE ] lines are now offering a ROI of more like 30% rather than the 40-50% i'd like, but if that's good enough for you there's still value here. 
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#2
04-02-2007, 02:58 AM
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Re: props
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Blue Jays: benefited from breakout/fluke seasons last year (JOHNSON, rios, ryan, WELLS, overbay). decline from these guys will more than offset frank thomas' impact, but the public refuses to accept that. [/ QUOTE ] just wanted clarification -- which names do you consider to be breakout vs fluke?
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#3
04-02-2007, 05:22 AM
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Re: props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Blue Jays: benefited from breakout/fluke seasons last year (JOHNSON, rios, ryan, WELLS, overbay). decline from these guys will more than offset frank thomas' impact, but the public refuses to accept that. [/ QUOTE ] just wanted clarification -- which names do you consider to be breakout vs fluke? [/ QUOTE ] you want my honest opinion? they're all flukes. i simply used that language because some of these guys are actually good players, like wells and ryan, but went nutso anyway.
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#5
04-02-2007, 12:49 PM
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Re: props
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hey crockpot, how much edge do you percieve your single game bets to have? [/ QUOTE ] current plan is 1 unit for 5-10% edge, 2 for 10-15%, 3 for 15-20%, 4 for 20%+, though these are rough estimates since the system is new. since these bets are heavily correlated with my futures picks, i'm using a smaller bet size than normal in some cases.
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#6
04-04-2007, 03:15 PM
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Re: props
[ QUOTE ]
some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily: White Sox under (insert number) W Diamondbacks over 78.5 W Dodgers under 88.5 W Blue Jays under 87.5 W [/ QUOTE ] I also love the CWS and LAD unders. The other two I wouldn't touch, although I lean over for the D-Backs.
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#7
08-29-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: props
thing85 prompted me to look at these as well.
White Sox under (insert number) W nice winner. I don't even remember where the line was set at the time, but it's a winner. Diamondbacks over 78.5 W only need 5 more wins. solid winner here. Dodgers under 88.5 W They'd need to go 20-10 over the final 32 to make this a loser, which isn't unheard of but will be hard. 6 games left against SDG, 4 against CHC, and 6 against AZ. More road games than home games. Very likely winner. Blue Jays under 87.5 W Basically a winner. They need 21 more wins, and with 6 against both the yanks and sox, as well as an inter-division series against seattle, no way they get 21 more. Nice 4-0 on these crock.
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