crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures) - Page 2

crockpot · #11 03-30-2007, 07:44 AM

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Hey Crock,

Thanks for the credit on the prop finds. I've got one more that could be of value.

I like Bob Melvin for NL manager of the year at 15-1. If the Dbacks show a marked improvement over last year's bad team (which they are likely to do even if they don't make the playoffs), Melvin has to be better than a randomly selected 1/16 shot. Thoughts?

Card

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i'm not sure this is as good a bet as the NL pennant prop, but i think it's +EV on its own.

crockpot · #12 03-30-2007, 07:52 AM

another point on variance. if a team like the devil rays breaks out and wins 15-20 games more than projected, the unbalanced schedule makes it likely that three or four of these wins will be against the red sox and yankees, which is a built-in advantage for the underdog to reach the playoffs.

MyTurn2Raise · #13 03-30-2007, 03:01 PM

ty for your work as always
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

crockpot · #14 03-30-2007, 07:15 PM

while many baseball bettors like to wait a month and see how things are going to shake out, it's my opinion that the most inefficient market is on opening day. thus you may see me take the counterintuitive position of betting more in april than later on.

i'm starting out with a 1-4 unit scale, BR of 200 units.

4/1: no plays
4/2: milwaukee -110 (4 units)

THAY3R · #15 03-30-2007, 07:19 PM

I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

TheRover · #16 03-30-2007, 07:32 PM

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while many baseball bettors like to wait a month and see how things are going to shake out, it's my opinion that the most inefficient market is on opening day. thus you may see me take the counterintuitive position of betting more in april than later on.

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The first month of the baseball season is the greatest thing ever.

Thremp · #17 03-30-2007, 08:14 PM

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I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

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I'm glad a lot of people think this.

crockpot · #18 03-30-2007, 08:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

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i wouldn't put my whole bankroll down on these bets, if that's what you mean. i have 5k sitting around that i may not use at all, and in six months i now expect it to be 7k. that's good enough for me, but it may not be for you.

i've already had bets on wang and rogers no-actioned for starting the season on the DL, so i do see your point.

THAY3R · #19 03-30-2007, 09:34 PM

Also, Bodog has confirmed to me that if you make an over bet, and it hits, if the player doesn't still play 140 games(or whatever) it is a no action.

THAY3R · #20 03-30-2007, 09:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

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I'm glad a lot of people think this.

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Can you explain?