crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[almostbusto]

this has probably been covered a million times but what US friendly sites are you guys using to find these lines? i right now my choices seem to be bodog and WSEX. thanks in advance

[crockpot]

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FYI, Pirates are 35-1 at Skybook if you want to get more down.

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thanks, i definitely owe you a drink if we ever meet up

[crockpot]

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this has probably been covered a million times but what US friendly sites are you guys using to find these lines? i right now my choices seem to be bodog and WSEX. thanks in advance

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bodog, wsex, sb, 5dimes, greek, betjm, cris, vip, matchbook, tradesports. greek and cris don't have dime lines but do offer bonuses and the occasional best line.

wsex, 5dimes, and betjm have the lowest juice.

[MicroBob]

wsex has the lowest juice?

[Jordan]

they have really low juice on baseball moneylines, take a look. i'm seeing 7c lines (lower than pinny)

[Post-Oak]

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wsex, 5dimes, and betjm have the lowest juice.

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Incredibly, BetJamaica still has their season wins over/under lines up. According to the site, they will be up until Friday at 1:00 PM EST.

There are some great opportunities on there. For example, you can get the 1-2 LAD under 89.5 at -120. The only problem is that the maximum bet is only TO WIN $250.

For those who don't realize it, just 3 games can have a large impact on the EV of a wager.

For example, let's look at the Pirates. Pitt is 3-0. The over/under is set at 71.5. Let's assume that the line is set perfectly. Just by getting off to a 3-0 start (we will ignore the strength of the opening opponent, although that would not hurt our case here as they were road games), the Pirates now have a 60.48% of winning 72 games or more.

In other words, a team that has a 50% chance of winning 72 games out of 162 will have a 60.48% chance of winning 69 out of 159. I now realize that a lot of people here won't believe these numbers, so you should buy and read Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Or use any of the binomial calculators available on the internet.

Now if you think that Pittsburgh is actually a little BETTER than a 71.5 win team, than this is a great opportunity to grab this bet after their hot start.

If you don't have money at BetJamaica, Visa Gift Cards are probably the only chance you have of funding an account in time. Just make sure to buy the right ones.

[MicroBob]

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they have really low juice on baseball moneylines, take a look. i'm seeing 7c lines (lower than pinny)

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damn, you're right.
Looks like I have to find a way to get some money back on there. Probably some good opportunities to be had.

WSEX with better lines than Pinny? Who'd a thunk it!!

[Jordan]

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Now if you think that Pittsburgh is actually a little BETTER than a 71.5 win team, than this is a great opportunity to grab this bet after their hot start.


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wow this seems too good to be true. pirates over may be a good bet but i think rangers under 80.5 -110 and astros under 78.5 EVEN look like gold. am i wrong?

[Post-Oak]

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wow this seems too good to be true. pirates over may be a good bet but i think rangers under 80.5 -110 and astros under 78.5 EVEN look like gold. am i wrong?

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I don't like the Houston under. I have them as being an 80-81 win team, so even at 0-3 I don't want to bet on them under 78.5 +100.

As for the 0-3 Texas Rangers, I already took that under yesterday. I have them as about a 78 win team, so I love them under 80.5 -120 with this poor start.

I also like the 0-2 CWS under 87 -185 (yes, that's -185). Like most, I see them as being a below .500 team. They play today, so if you are borderline on this one then you can wait and see if they lose again.

Other lines still up on BJ that I like:
2-1 Col Rockies Over 75.5 -120
1-2 LAD Under 88.5 -140 (was -115)
3-0 Min Twins Over 84.5 -135
3-0 Pitt Pirates Over 71.5 -120
2-0 SD Padres Over 84 -120 (they play tonight also)

I have bet all of those already. There are some more I am looking at, but I need to try and get money into my account today.

Yes, this should be too good to be true. Someone there probably made the decision to keep these lines up for the first few days. This person likely has no idea how important even just a 3-0 start can be. Alternatively, these lines are being left up until 4/6 by accident. This isn't that likely IMO, since the lines are moving some (not nearly enough).

[SonnyJay]

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4/5:

Det -127 (1u)

it looks like this number is gone now, but i was busy typing my last post and couldn't report it faster. still a play at -133.

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Game postponed due to rain.
Tigers.com

Bummer, that was a good price for the game.