Do i suck at sngs?

burns-1986 · #1 10-10-2007, 06:27 AM

I am currently experiencing my longest and most depressing downswing playing sngs. The last 300 games or so have been really rough. I feel like I just cant win a race and every time i push somebody always finds a better hand. Its really starting to get me down and im thinking that I was just getting lucky in the beginning. and now variance is catching up with me. I guess what im asking here is whether a 300 game losing run is just due to variance or me playing worse , I dont think im doing a lot different from before but im sure im not playing my best.I would also like to know what you all do when your running bad, do you keep playing through it or do you take a few days off?. If you want to check my sharkscope my screen name is burns1986 on pokerstars [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

auc hincloss · #2 10-10-2007, 06:49 AM

Can't check sharkscope right now, but usually when i hit a run of bad cards i find playing through it isn't always the optimal way to do things. take a break for a bit, hang out with friends go bowling or something. relax and get into a better frame of mind. I know lack of confidence proper [censored] up my game. drop down a limit perhaps for a while just to bring up the confidence level. No one runs good forever.

Jackrabbit Slim · #3 10-10-2007, 06:52 AM

The most likely answer, if you've been winning over a decent sample previously, is that you're both running bad and playing a bit worse than before. 300 games is a small sample and it's very possible for a winning player to run bad over longer periods than that.

Also, when you run bad you may start to play a bit tighter to try to squeeze into the money, make some bad calls/pushes and so on. I know I do. Small changes in your game that leads to an even longer downswing. You can always try to take a break or move down to easier game to regain some confidence in winning.

ZeroPointMachine · #4 10-10-2007, 07:04 AM

With the ROIs that are achievable today ugly 300-500 game stretches are going to happen once in awhile. They are very rough on the soul and it is easy to make them worse by playing badly. Leaks will creep into your game if you are not careful. Review your play and focus on your decisions. If I'm not careful I find that I become a little gun shy in button/SB situations by making up excuses for why someone is going to call me with a huge range and a little too aggressive from other positions because I'm card dead and AT suddenly feels like a monster.

IFoldPktOnes · #5 10-10-2007, 08:23 AM

I checked ss, I don't think theres any doubt you are a winner at the levels you play. Dropping 40 buy-ins can happen even at $6.5s. Review hands and concentrate on improving your game to reduce variance.

I tend to play higher volume when I run bad but wouldn't suggest this to anyone prone to tilting. Once you are sure you are playing your A-game just grind through the downswing.

sonneti · #6 10-10-2007, 09:20 AM

2000 x $5 is pretty sick.. once you get your confidence back move up!!

crystalallen · #7 10-10-2007, 09:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a 300 game losing run

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Does this mean not winning any SNG for 300 games? Not being in the money at all for 300 games? If so, how could a bankroll sustain that?

Excuse my ignorance.

IFoldPktOnes · #8 10-10-2007, 09:57 AM

I think finishing out of the money 300 times in a row would be difficult even if you were trying to do that on purpose.

He means a downswing over 300 games.

crystalallen · #9 10-10-2007, 10:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think finishing out of the money 300 times in a row would be difficult even if you were trying to do that on purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha. I didn't think that sounded right.
Even this: "Dropping 40 buy-ins" sounds really really bad.

IFoldPktOnes · #10 10-10-2007, 10:13 AM

If your true roi is 5% you will have a 40+ buyin downswing within a 2k sample ~2/3 of the time, compared to ~1/4 of the time if your true roi is 10%. According to the roi simulator.