*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

Witzo · #1 11-06-2007, 01:37 PM

Detroit has already moved a point to Pick.

kyro · #2 11-06-2007, 04:17 PM

I like the Cowboys -1 here. DVOA has Cowboys -2, and MOV has Cowboys -6. I also expect the Giants to start off very slow, given their last 4 opponents have been the Jets/Dolphins/Falcons/49ers, and they are coming off a week in which they played in London.

I like the Raiders +3. Someone remind me why a crappy team is getting 3 points at home against a similarly crappy team? Anyone?

Staying away from Det/Ari. Before the Week 9 update, DVOA had Arizona > Detroit. I expect that to change, but Arizona is still better than their record, and while I'm happy for Detroit and their fans, I don't think Detroit is as good as theirs. If I had to pick, I'd probably pick ARI +1.

Haven't seen a line for CIN/BAL yet.

Let me know what you think.

Rustjive · #3 11-06-2007, 04:21 PM

CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

kyro · #4 11-06-2007, 04:37 PM

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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

[/ QUOTE ]

Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

psuasskicker · #5 11-06-2007, 11:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

[/ QUOTE ]

Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget how dreadfully awful Cinci is. I make this spread to be Ravens -3 or -3.5...not big enough for me to bet on here, given that I don't like betting Ravens games.

- C -

kyro · #6 11-07-2007, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

[/ QUOTE ]

Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget how dreadfully awful Cinci is. I make this spread to be Ravens -3 or -3.5...not big enough for me to bet on here, given that I don't like betting Ravens games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cinci isn't dreadfully awful.

Cinci's six losses.

51-45 @ Cleveland (Cleveland decent team)
24-21 @ Seattle (Seattle decent team)
34-13 v New England (Enough said)
27-20 @ Kansas City (Arrowhead tough place to play)
27-13 v. Steelers (Pitt v. good team)
33-21 @ Buffalo (Buffalo is ok. Game was closer than score looks.)

Meanwhile, Baltimore has beaten nothing but the drecks. Cincinatti may not be good, but dreadfully awful is reserved for teams like the Ravens.

TooTallT · #7 11-07-2007, 01:51 AM

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Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

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This game closed CIN -3 earlier in the year right? And the game basically played to that number (Cincy won by 7, but Balt could've forced overtime if Billick wasn't retarded).

I'm confused why we switch homefields and have a 7.5 point swing here. Neither team has changed much or shown much that deviates from that early season line. Both teams are about equally worse than we thought they were at the beginning of the year. Balt's better record doesn't dissuade me from taking Cin +4.5 for 1.5u.

That being said, there's no way Cincy is better SU in Balt.

kyro · #8 11-07-2007, 03:12 AM

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That being said, there's no way Cincy is better SU in Balt.

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I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2.

TooTallT · #9 11-07-2007, 10:17 AM

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I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2.

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I make them even on a neutral field... so +4.5 is a great bet IMO.

ensign_lee · #10 11-11-2007, 12:32 PM

SageStats ensign_lee

Arizona -1.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

The line started off at Detroit -1, where it stayed for about 12 hours, before somebody pounded the line and made it into Arizona -1. From there, the line has gone to Arizona -1.5. All the while, there have been bets pouring in on Detroit.

I think that there has been a public overreaction to the Lions dismantling of the Bills. A lot of things had to go right for them in that game for the score to end up the way that it did, and well...they happened. Going into a road environment, I think that they'll lose some of that edge. Plus, the Lions haven't been the best road team and so I expect their performance to dip. Also, I believe that they may go into this game a little overconfident.

But bottom line is the reverse line movement with about 75-80% of the bets on Detroit. Plus, when I first saw the line, I was like "What? Detroit is a 1 pt. dog? Obviously, the play is Detroit", which usually ends up badly for me. hah.

Chicago -3.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Unlike 96% of the country, I watched the Houston Texans/Oakland Raiders game last week. I saw firsthand Ron freaking Dayne put up over 100 yards on this defense. I saw the offensive coordinator of the Raiders completely unable to adjust to our star CB Dunta Robinson going out with injury. No in-game adjustments + pretty terrible running defense = a losing football team. Even with CHicago's woes, I believe that they can take care of business here in Oakland. The public being on this with me doesn't worry me quite that much, since the line moved the way you would have expected it to, from -3 to -3.5. Shame I didn't get that -3...