AP Bad Beat Jackpot

[pococurante]

It's pretty tough to figure out the odds for this since there are so many variables. Here are some very rough numbers...

Quads over quads is more likely to happen than any hand involving a straight flush, I'll stick to that for now.

Odds of being dealt a pocket pair above 7: 1 in 31.57.
Odds of 1 person out of 9 getting it: 9/31.5 = 28.5%
Odds of 2 people getting qualifying pairs... let's just call it 1/14

Then assuming both players stay in until the river (which is unlikely), the odds of quads over quads is

4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 * (1/49 + 1/48) = 1 in 133,967.

133,967 x 14 = 1,875,538.

Sure, there are straight flush hands out there that will improve the odds of hitting the jackpot... but also keep in mind a lot of potential jackpot hitting hands are folded before the river.

My guess is that at best, your chances are 1 in 2,000,000 to win for each hand you play.