TP on the river, value?

Jamougha · #1 10-14-2007, 07:40 AM

Eh I know I'm missing value bets in places, how about this?

Villain is a pretty solid TAG. He doesn't like being 3-bet much and seems to like fighting back. So preflop is probably dopey. Doesn't seem like either a station or a nit. He probably sees me as a reasonable player but I doubt he thinks I'm overaggro. I've been wrong about that before tho.

effective stacks $1300.

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Villain raises to $35, Hero raises to $120,</font> 2 folds, Villain calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot: $255)
Villain checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $175</font>, Vilalin calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot: 605)
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Pot: 605)
Villain checks, Hero ...

reup · #2 10-14-2007, 08:09 AM

it looks like he has nines or tens... or AJ since qq+ would play back on the flop or somewhere with your read. If he c/r river you're folding right? so a river amount that would deter a c/r like 2/3 pot but might get a call from TT/99 looks good to me.

aditya · #3 10-14-2007, 08:36 AM

385

Requin · #4 10-14-2007, 09:46 AM

If by fighting back you mean he's 4-bet you before then sure bet, if not (or if he can show up with AJ) check it.

Jamougha · #5 10-14-2007, 10:22 AM

He has 4-bet me before. I suspect he can show down AJ, KJ here as a lot of people will these days. Still I'm not sure.

Praetor · #6 10-14-2007, 10:50 AM

Its definitely a value bet in theory

skier_5 · #7 10-14-2007, 11:19 AM

This is pretty close and I think that stack sizes make it even closer (IE he plays more hands slowly with these stacks imo), but if he's a station there are a ton of mid pairs he could call here with and then it's probably a bet.

Requin · #8 10-14-2007, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He has 4-bet me before. I suspect he can show down AJ, KJ here as a lot of people will these days. Still I'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]Close but I'd check, if you think there's a reasonable chance he can call AJ or KJ PF.

fslexcduck · #9 10-14-2007, 01:12 PM

i'd rather bet the turn and check the river tbh but given you got here it just depends on the opponent. this is a bet a lot of the time.

Pasterbator · #10 10-14-2007, 01:14 PM

i'd be betting here all day long.

Remember when you used to play AK like this and they called you down with 99/TT... Let him do it again.