Odd Quiz, introductory concepts pt. 1.

[pepper123]

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If you shove both hands, your playing pretty close to game theoritically right!

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i pot/pot/shove any time i see a flop. my w$wsf is through the roof! once i stop running into so many big hands I'm gonna kill this game.

[Nielsio]

Obviously it depends a lot on the type of villain. We are not going to try to bluff a calling station. And against a weaktighty we may have to open some tricks for him to put money in with TPMK.

But let's say they are unknown:


1. I like overbetting the flop and turn, which wins us the pot often I think, and if it doesn't we still have mucho outs. Depending on timing tells I'll overbet/shove the river or not if I miss, or if I hit. If I hit on the turn I'll make two valuebets (turn 70%, river 60%).

2. Pot flop, check-min-raise turn, valuebet river 60%.

[Sweir]

In hand 1 I would bet the flop. If he calls and the turn blanks then I would fire again planning on betting the river too if it blanks because I dont think his hand can stand that much heat. I would bet fairly large on all streets, like atleast 3/4 pot.

In hand 2 I like Nielsio's line of bet flop cmr turn and vb riv.

[RainbowBright]

HAND 1:
Depends on whether or not I think the Villain would bet his hand. If I think he'll bet it, then I'm going to get 1/3-1/2 PSB because I'll expect him to call and not raise. In addition, I'm setting the price of the bet as opposed to the Villain who will likely make a 3/4- PSB.

ALT PLAN: I might also just pot, pot pot it on all 3-streets knowing that the Villain will fold on the river even if I don't make my hand because he has TPWK. (This is probably the highest EV)

HAND 2:
Bet it. We're ahead, he'll at least call one bullet. I'd probably pot it. If he calls, I'm going to bet alot of turns but I'll try and make a small bet that I think he'll call but not have the correct odds.

(Poker's easy when you know your opponent's cards. You can more or less play perfect)

[SonOfWestwood]

Assuming each hand is against an unknown villain, in a vacuum...

Hand 1 - I want to say bet, because that's typically what I'd do, but since I know his hand, I can just check/call each street as long as the odds are there, right? Maybe calling with slightly less than the required immediate odds is okay, too, as I should be able to extract at least a little more from him if I hit.

Hand 2 - I'm betting each street for value and for protection against him hitting a 9 or T.

[Unknown Soldier]

1: since when do unknowns fold top pair at 200nl? I like betting the flop because i want to build a pot up, we have good equity, so mathematiclly it isn't a terrible bet only slightly -EV on the flop, but with the dead money in there it'll be fine anyway i guess. Bet like 2/3 or whatever will make getting the money in the middle eaier if we hit the turn, im too lazy to work it out. I suppose it is correct to bet 1/2, but i want to build a pot up here, plus a 1/2 bet is more likely to be raised. If we hit he's gonna make bigger mistakes then if we c/c. If i miss the turn then im c/c or c/f depending on the odds he's giving us.


bet bet bet hand 2 ldo

[Ringmaster]

Hand 1

We're slightly behind in equity here (45%) so ideally we'd like to see a free turn to make our hand, or push him off of his to "steal" his half of the pot equity. We're OOP though, so if we check its likely that villain will bet his TP, so we're not getting a free card.

I think we need to bet here. A ch/c is no good if we assume villain will make a PSB when we check. We have 12 outs to improve with 45 unknown cards remaining, so we're slightly better than 25% to hit on the turn. If we ch/c a PSB, we're only getting 2:1. If instead we lead for 1/2 pot and villain calls, we're essentially giving ourselves 3:1, which are slightly better than the direct odds needed to continue. This of course assumes that villain won't raise our 1/2 pot c-bet, but I think this is reasonable (if he does, we can always shove for massive FE [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]).

The same reasoning applies to the turn if we miss, however, ch/r turn might be better if we can count on villain folding a high % of the time.


Hand 2

Well, this one's pretty easy. We have an equity advantage here (nearly 80%), so any money that goes in now is +EV. We want to extract as much as villain is willing to put in with TPWK as long as he doesn't improve. So, bet, bet, bet until villain improves or folds.

[blackize]

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so mathematiclly it isn't a terrible bet only slightly -EV on the flop, but with the dead money in there it'll be fine anyway i guess

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With zero FE the amount of dead money has no bearing on whether or not betting the flop is +/- EV, but I agree with taking the slightly -EV play now to set up a bigger bet when we hit.

[Hince]

Hand 1) I like a c/r somewhere for some reason. Something like bet, c/r turn or c/r flop, bet turn.

Typically, I'm not c/ring a draw like this, but when we know he has a weak kicker, and is probably calling us down if we just bet (he has TP, ldo). I think this line lets a win a decent size pot with the worst hand a lot of the time.

Hand 2) bet bet bet. People just don't fold TP anymore.

[BobboFitos]

Going to try to answer some posts, then at the end of the day give my thoughts. Of course, I cant be so dogmatic to assume I'm right, but I have a pretty good idea of "what is right" when you know their cards because hey, this should be to our advantage...

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I think reads are important here. Vs a solid player I'm firing all 3 streets big, 80% pot, (doubt he calls the turn though) in hand 1.

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You think villain will fold the turn to a 2nd barrel w/ KT? If this is so we should be betting the turn no matter what we have.

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1. it depends on the villian... how aggreive is he? is he the type who raise since there's a flush draw out there? most reg will raise on that flop if you bet. so i would probably check call... and maybe lead the turn for a small amount if i miss my draw. it all depends on the read.

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Sorta clear IF you bet he JUST calls.

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if hes not the kind of player who can make a top pair weak kicker type laydown to 3 barrels o

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The real question, KNOWING our opponent has top pair, even with a decent draw like we have, should we be trying to make him fold it? And thus, if that's the case, (Q2) how are we maximizing value, if villain truly IS folding at some point? (The seesaw)

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some of this is convoluted and im still thinking about what lines id like to take, but id like to hear if you agree with any of this.

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The problem with your GT argument is it's too simplistic and vague for our purposes; you're basically saying if it's 50/50 if you have a real hand it "doesnt really matter what they do" (This isn't true, btw, due to immediate equities and current pot odds, I'd investigate this further, it may help you refine your current frequencies)

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dont you think your play is going to be a bit obvious if you pot 3 streets when you're semi bluffing and looking for folds and bet lightly on each street with made hands?

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It may, but that's irrelevant in the here and now.