Question on Variance & judging your play

[Proofrock]

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Even if you get it in as an 80% favorite every time - you will still get outdrawn 20% of the time. So if you are involved in 5 of these in a large turnament and all is for your life - you will statistical on average be out of the tournament.

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This is wrong.

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How is this wrong? If in each of them you're all-in (like the post states), then the probability you will not win all of "n" such occurances is 1-(0.8)^n. You will win 3 such all-ins in a row only 51% of the time, four 41% of the time, and 5 only 33% of the time.

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Technically, if you're involved in 5 all-ins for your tourney life, it means that you have already won the first 4.

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Shrug, I guess if it's just a semantic issue then fine.
A better way to word it then would have been, "If you always get all-in for your tournament life as an 80% favorite, you'll be out 2/3 of the time before your 6th all-in."

[1outer]

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Does one play good if you allways fold and only play AA when blinded down to 1 big blind and you lose while getting it in good?

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No, i definitely consider myself a student of the game, i started playing micro stakes and have read every book watched every show, blah blah blah. I strongly believe my fundamentals are strong (therefore not making giant mistakes like blinding myself down etc.) I also consider myself a thinking player (not just playing my cards, but playing the person, the table dynamics, antes/blind levels, money bubble) I have been reviewing my HH's and am starting to realize you need to win flips and small edge situations in deep stages of MTT's to be successful as well. I play a nitty style in the lower buy in levels becuz people tend to just want to give you chips. There is no pushing ace-rag off a A-J-K flop with a open ended str8 flush draw or hands of that sort.

I joined card runners and hopefully their videos will help me substantially. But clearly, I think if i just try to make the best decision I can on every street which results in getting my money "in good". That is all I can do.

I think this is kinda a good topic tho, does anyone else have any ideas or opinions on if getting your money in good a large percentage of the time truly makes you a winning player. Some winning players who tend to be aggro accumulators will tell you they got all the way to the final table showing their cards no more than 5 times. Is there an advantage to both styles?

[Sherman]

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Even if you get it in as an 80% favorite every time - you will still get outdrawn 20% of the time. So if you are involved in 5 of these in a large turnament and all is for your life - you will statistical on average be out of the tournament.

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This is wrong.

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How is this wrong? If in each of them you're all-in (like the post states), then the probability you will not win all of "n" such occurances is 1-(0.8)^n. You will win 3 such all-ins in a row only 51% of the time, four 41% of the time, and 5 only 33% of the time.

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Technically, if you're involved in 5 all-ins for your tourney life, it means that you have already won the first 4.

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^^^^This is why. That was the point. I realize now that he did qualify that they are all for your "life". So I take it back, the statement isn't wrong, but in practice it is unlikely.

Sherman

[Bonified]

You're still kind of focussing on the wrong thing if I understand you correctly. Good tournament play often means putting in your money in situations where you'll almost certainly have the worst of it if you get called. I can't recommend much more than studying the MTT forums and asking questions where appropriate ; and for tournaments, I think PokerXFactor is your best bet, you can play back HHs without paying the subscription, check out the stickied thread in SSMTT.

[Dunkman]

I've been in the same spot lately so I know how you feel. I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player, but this year has been pretty terrible for me. I haven't put in a lot of volume or anything, but I've really started to question whether I'm actually a winning player. I'm sure part of it is running bad, and part of it is bad play, and I feel like my solution is finding some people to swap HHs with, which is something I've neglected to do/been putting off. Also, I think a big part of my problem has been just lack of concentration, I'm pretty sure if I played with as much thought as I put into responding to threads in SSMTT then I would be doing better.

[hasuuser]

Really nice topic and i feel the same way. Its not just about losing flips tho. When you lose flips , you can at least see if you ve made the right play or not, however its way more complicated then that.

Let's say you 3-bet light or bluff bet the river. You are gona get called and lose some % of a time. Lets say villain is pretty unknown and you need him to fold 60% of a time to make this play profitable. When you run bad and get called a lot in this spot you start tightening up and in turn passing up the +EV spots, because you start thinking he folds less then 60 here.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

MTTs are insanely mentally draining and I feel like I could write a 5 page rant about this but I'm too lazy at the moment.

MTT variance has made me the nutjob I am today.

[allyasia]

i can take everything except late in tournment, people gamble with very unlikely cards for all their stack, and hit hard.
i can never understand the call with 34-47 sooted or 22-55.

[playtowin]

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MTTs are insanely mentally draining and I feel like I could write a 5 page rant about this but I'm too lazy at the moment.

MTT variance has made me the nutjob I am today.

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[mkind0516]

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MTTs are insanely mentally draining and I feel like I could write a 5 page rant about this but I'm too lazy at the moment.

MTT variance has made me the nutjob I am today.

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I would estimate the avg online tournament as a minimum of 95% luck.