AA flop fold - standard?

[kidcolin]

Villian has only been around 20-30 hands or so, his stats are tight. Like 12/8. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $105
UTG+1: $67.05
CO: $112.70
Button: $98.50
SB: $118.85
BB: $125.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($8.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $26.5</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $20.5 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: $20.5

Standard, yes?

[nubs]

I would fold here. You could be ahead but it's a huge reverse implied odds situation. How do you think he would play AQ preflop and on this board?

[carnivalhobo]

yuck, i probably stick it in here, but i dont really fold AA.

[kidcolin]

That's the thing.. I had no clue, so I just went with my gut and figured vs. his range I'm a loser. I thought it could be AQ-QJ,QT-JT,KJ,TT-99. QQ might even be in there, though discounted obviously.

A quick pokerstove shows me as 1.3:1 dog, and I'm getting 2:1 on my immediate call, but I made his range fairly wide. So in reality I think it's a bit worse than this, and as you said, this is a major reverse implied odds situation.

Board: Qc Ts 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.6372 % 43.16% 00.48% { AcAs }
Hand 2: 56.3630 % 55.89% 00.48% { QQ-99, AQs, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }

Plus I'm OOP, so I wasn't comfortable there.

[carnivalhobo]

i dont think you can call the flop FWIW, either shove or fold

[kidcolin]

agreed. So when I take the shove into account, I'm always behind his calling range. That's why I folded.. makes sense?

[nubs]

I'm pretty sure you can take hands like JTo, QTo, QJo and KJo out of his range entirely. I have a 25 vpip and I instamuck those hands preflop.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. So when I take the shove into account, I'm always behind his calling range. That's why I folded.. makes sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

not if he folds a lot, because if he does you win all the money in the pot with 100% equity, even if you get called you will always have outs. A better read on the guys play would be helpful and/or table dynamics.

[KLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure you can take hands like JTo, QTo, QJo and KJo out of his range entirely. I have a 25 vpip and I instamuck those hands preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

what the [censored] do you play then?

i regularly play all suited gappers, suited connectors, pairs, broadways and only have a 20 vp$ip.

[kidcolin]

He means since he's calling a raise, and I tend to agree.

During the hand, I thought, two pair (limited to suited hands), set, straight (KJs), or big combo draw. AQ thrown in there as a possibility, too.