Blackjack question

[Cauldron]

What would be a player's expected return in blackjack if they knew both the dealer's cards?

[Shroomy]

It depends on the rules, and if you were worried about discovery, i.e. would you hit a 19 if the dealer had 20?

I would make a guesstimate of 35% but Id have to work on it a bit to come up with a real number, I may be way off, Im estimating from the advantage of seeing the dealers hole card when there is a 10 showing, I may be way off, but don't have the time to work it out (and since no one answered)

[Cauldron]

My hunch is it would be higher than 35%. I was just curious, and wasn't quite sure how to figure it out.

[Shroomy]

Actually thinking a bit more, and trying to pull out the house edge in double exposure and the difference between blackjack playing 2-1, I think 35% is too high. But let me figure it out tomorrow when i haven't had a few glasses of wine while steaming from a bad beat.

[four-flush]

[ QUOTE ]
What would be a player's expected return in blackjack if they knew both the dealer's cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

An answer can be found in Edward O Thorp's Beat the Dealer (2nd printing from 1964).

[Mickey Brausch]

[ QUOTE ]
What would be a player's expected return in blackjack if they knew both the dealer's cards?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know of any blackjack game where both dealer's cards are hidden - so I assume you simply refer to knowing the dealer's hole card.

You want to know your edge when knowing every time the dealer's hole card -- the dealer in such cases being called, in the hole card mafias' lingo, a superstar -- because she blinds you with her super luminous flash, see? This depends on whether or not you are using that information perfectly or not.

"Perfectly" means hitting your hard 19 when the dealer shows a 9 and you know that the hole card is an Ace. Playing perfectly gives you, of course, the highest possible edge, which is something like 13.4% in 6d S17 DOA DAS. Of course, the exact edge depends on the rules, e.g. LS increases that edge by 1.26%.

But hitting hard 19 will bring you immediately under close scrutiny by the pit and the eye. And when the dealer starts turning over those 20s and 19s, after you are hit hard 19s and hard 18s, your lifespan at that particular casino will almost certainly be a very short one.

Therefore, you would be advised to use that knowledge sparingly and under pretense, which means gritting your teeth and taking the loss when having hard 18 against dealer paint. Your "non-optimal" play reduces Edge Per Hand but compensates by prolonging playing hours, i.e. number of hands, and thus increasing Edge Per Hand*Number Of Hands. I assume you'd rather play 500 Hands with an edge of 6% than 20 hands with 13.4%.

For more on this subject, you should look up "Beyond Counting" (currently our of print).

Mickey Brausch

[Shroomy]

Mickey...
good info, btw is that for knowing every hole card, or just knowing the ones when the dealer has a 10 up .. i.e. when the dealer checks for BJ?

[Mickey Brausch]

That's for knowing every hole card, yes.

Mickey Brausch