NL50 JJ rivered set but facing big bet

[andys0506]

Villain: 29/16/6 over 80 hands

Looking back at this I think I should have bet turn but I was worried about getting raised.

Comments on my play please...

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $46.75
MP: $45.45
CO: $10.80
BTN: $55.05
Hero (SB): $49.70
BB: $44.30

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.50</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $2.50, Hero calls $2.25, BB folds

Flop: ($8) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>, UTG calls $5.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($19) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($19) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $38.75 and is All-In</font>, Hero ????

[IAGTTAYM]

87 got there and he could possibly have peeled the flop with KQs. A few questions I would ask myself:

Does villain check an overpair or better on the turn? Probably not.
Can villain shove worse?
JT is possible, but is it in his UTG-range? Doesn't he bet the turn with JT?
Could villain make some weird bluff shove with AK or AQ, trying to get you of some weak one pair?
Could villain turn QJ into a bluff?
Most likely not.
Is 5x villains standard opening raise?

We have to be good 30% to call on the river. I think it's close, folding is probably correct but meh...

[Babalatexi]

I put a 29/16 UTG's raise as something along all pairs, AT+, KQ. Bet the turn, if you get raised you're beat 80%+ of the time (making a bluff here would require some balls by UTG) and you can easily fold. On the river I insta-call for these reasons:

a) You checked the turn=weak
b) You only bet half the pot (wtf)=weak
c) UTG may think he has the best hand with TT, 99, KK, AA and just played it horribly (this is pretty unlikely though)

The way you played this there is no way UTG can put you on a strong or even decent hand which makes the river an insta-call - sucks if he had KQ but that's variance.

[Unknown Soldier]

call. esp after your ridiculously small bet. And yeah bet the turn, fold if you are raised

[Pool_Lou]

I would call.
For sure 78 isn't in villains range for the low end of the straight. A villain with those stats wouldn't raise 78s pre-flop.

Most likely he's holding KQ for the straight, but as stated: that's variance.

You played the hand weak so villain may think his AA or lower set is good here.

Next time bet the turn, around 3/4 pot size.

Greetz.

[matrix]

reraise preflop.

Why are you donking into the pfr? We have an overpair and UTG raised preflop, let him make a CB he's a 29/16/six ffs it'll probably be bigger than your donk. The only good reasons to donk imo are when we flop such a solid hand (like top two or a set) that we want to b3b all-in and donk ~1/3pot - or as a bluff sometimes vs an over aggro CBettor.

as played snap call - if he has KQ - coolered nh.

[andys0506]

Yep he had KQ fro the straight.

Having said that is the river call ok? Its a large raise from villain.